港股晨报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：军工狂欢对冲 AI 回调，非农成关 键定调 昨日，港股三大指数有所回调。截至收盘，恒生指数跌 1.17%，国企指数跌 1.09%， 恒生科技指数跌 1.05%。大市成交金额 2,682.75 亿元，主板总卖空金额 433.55 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 18.51%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流出 49.01 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是小米 集团 1810.HK、腾讯 700.HK、中芯国际 981.HK；净卖出最多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、恒生中国企业 2828.HK、南方恒生科技 3033.HK。 板块方面，教育板块下跌，其中，中国东方教育 667.HK 跌 5.83%，中国春来 1969.HK 跌 4.69%，中教控股 839.HK 跌 4.62%。 科技板块也普遍下跌。其中，百度集团-SW 9888.HK 跌 3.31%，美团-W 3690.HK 跌 3.35%，快手-W 1024.HK 跌 2.51%，微盟集团 2013.HK 跌 2.49%，阿里巴巴 ...

The most oversold stocks in the industrials sector presents an opportunity to buy into undervalued companies.The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down. When compared to a stock’s price action, it can give traders a better sense of how a stock may perform in the short term. An asset is typically considered oversold when the RSI is below 30, according to Benzinga Pro.Here's the latest list of major oversold players ...

报告摘要 SDICSI 2026 年 01 月 05 日 震坤行 (ZKH.US) 一站式 MRO 服务平台，业绩或进入修复周期 震坤行在国内数字化工业用品服务（MRO）市场中，份额仅次于京东工业。以 1H25 业绩看，震坤行 GMV/总收入/毛利约为京东工业的 31%/40%/36%，当前 市值约为京东工业的 12%。考虑公司 4 季度有望实现扭亏为盈，业绩重启增长 周期，我们认为有望带动估值修复，建议关注。 一站式数字化工业用品服务平台。震坤行主要业务为一站式工业用品采购与管 理服务，主要客户为制造业企业，帮助其降低工业用品采购和管理成本，提升 供应链效率。业务模式上，以自营 1P 为主（3Q25 1P GMV 占比 87%），兼顾 3P 平台模式。2024 年，整体 GMV 为 105 亿元，对应的 2020-2024 CAGR 为 20.5%。 2025 年前 3 季度 GMV 合计为 72 亿元，同比降 12%，其中 3 季度降幅已收窄 至 2%，主要反映主动的战略调整。3Q25 客户数量为 7.1 万，同比增 48%。 财务表现：收入恢复正增长，亏损持续收窄。2025 年 3 季度总收入为 23 ...

收入端显示，公司第三季度总GMV为26.2亿元人民币，同比下降2.3%，但降幅较前几个季度已明显收 窄。季度客户总数突破7万，创历史新高；日均订单额从7月的3700万元增至11月的5200万元，增长显 著。利润端显示，第三季度非GAAP运营亏损/净亏损分别为2200万元/1400万元，利润率环比和同比均 有改善。管理层透露公司已在9月实现单月盈亏平衡，并有望在第四季度实现单季盈利。海外业务预计 在2026年达到盈亏平衡。 分析师模型预测，公司第四季度GMV/收入将恢复同比增长（+4%/+5%），并实现800万元调整后净利 润。 华兴资本研报指出，震坤行第三季度业绩显示，尽管商品交易总额同比仍小幅下滑，但降幅收窄，且净 亏损大幅减少，经营状况持续改善。管理层预计第四季度将恢复同比增长并实现单季盈利。因此，分析 师维持"买入"评级，并将目标价小幅下调至4.00美元。 供应链深化与AI赋能。季度新增230万个SKU，总数超1900万；新增1200多家供应商（主要为OEM）。 自有品牌业务增长强劲，GMV同比增长16.7%，占总GMV的8.2%，长期目标为贡献30%的GMV。另 外，公司正式推出专为MRO行业研发的大 ...

【12月16日中信证券首覆盖震坤行，给予"增持"评级】12月16日，中信证券发布报告，首次覆盖震坤 行，给出"增持"评级，目标价4.3美元。震坤行是国内MRO电商领先平台，随客户拓展与海外业务布局 加快，有望重回增长轨道。 震坤行2025年三季度业绩公告显示，营收23.28亿元，同比增2.1%；Non - GAAP调整后净亏损0.14亿元，亏幅同比收窄78.7%。三季度业务步入复苏，GMV同比降幅收窄，大、 中小企业客户商品交易总额均增长。中信证券看好其GMV重回增长，盈利质量改善。 自有品牌战略 上，震坤行坚定布局高毛利自有品牌产品。25Q3自有品牌GMV同比增16.7%，占总GMV比重升至 8.2%。客户数与SKU供给量高增，截至25Q3客户数7.08万家，同比增48.0%；25Q3新增超230万个 SKU，总可售SKU超1900万。 人工智能赋能业务方面，震坤行在多运营环节应用人工智能。核心应 用"AI推品大脑"自2024Q4上线，截至2025Q3累计推荐超2000万条物料，创造超1亿元增量营收。 海外 市场中，震坤行美国分销渠道拓展，除自有北美平台Northsky，已入驻亚马逊等第三方平台。中信证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities initiates coverage on Zhenkunhang (ZKH.US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $4.3, highlighting its position as a leading MRO e-commerce platform in China, which is expected to return to a growth trajectory due to customer expansion and accelerated overseas business layout [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhenkunhang reported Q3 2025 revenue of 2.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with a Non-GAAP adjusted net loss of 14 million yuan, narrowing the loss by 78.7% year-on-year [1]. - After adjustments in the first half of the year, the company's business entered a recovery phase in Q3, with a reduced year-on-year decline in GMV and growth in total transaction volume from both large enterprises and SMEs [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to a private label strategy, with Q3 2025 private label GMV increasing by 16.7%, accounting for 8.2% of total GMV [1]. - The total number of customers reached 70,800 by Q3 2025, representing a 48.0% year-on-year increase, while over 2.3 million new SKUs were added, bringing the total available SKUs to over 19 million [1]. Group 3: AI and International Expansion - The company applies AI technology across various operational aspects, with the "AI Product Recommendation Brain" set to launch in Q4 2024, having already recommended over 20 million items and generating over 100 million yuan in incremental revenue by Q3 2025 [2]. - Zhenkunhang has expanded its distribution channels in the U.S., successfully entering third-party platforms like Amazon in addition to its own North American platform, Northsky [2].

在"十五五"规划将产业数智化升级列为重点方向、"人工智能+"行动加速落地的背景下，中国制造业正 迈入由 AI 驱动的效率重塑阶段。企业对全链路数字化的投入意愿不断提升，尤其是在直接影响管理成 本与产能效率的采购环节，数智化转型需求愈发迫切。 作为国内领先的数智化 MRO 采购平台，震坤行（NYSE: ZKH）通过持续迭代的数智化技术、完善的产 品矩阵以及覆盖全国的履约网络，为客户提供一站式工业用品采购与管理服务，持续赋能企业在采购环 节的降本增效。 近日，震坤行在上海总部举行 2025 投资者日交流活动。管理层围绕产品力、数智化能力与全球化战略 进行了系统阐述，进一步强化了投资者对公司增长前景的积极预期。 中国MRO市场潜力巨大，震坤行进入高质量增长期 从行业视角看，中国MRO采购仍处于线上化渗透的早期阶段，但趋势已十分明确：在政策推动与产业 升级的共同作用下，制造业数字化需求持续抬升，企业采购行为正加速向标准化、透明化的线上平台模 式迁移。全球经验亦表明，当行业进入平台化阶段，市场份额会迅速向具备成熟的、一站式供给能力的 头部玩家集中。 这一规律在德国MRO采购龙头伍尔特（Würth Group）的发展路径 ...

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank maintains a "Buy" rating on Zhenkunhang (ZKH.US) with a 12-month target price of $4, citing ongoing digital transformation opportunities in China's MRO procurement service market as a driver for long-term growth potential [1] - Zhenkunhang's Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 2% year-on-year to reach 2.328 billion yuan, and the company achieved monthly breakeven in September [1] - The bank expects an improvement in Q4 GMV growth and quarterly profitability, while keeping revenue forecasts for FY2025/2026 largely unchanged, but raising adjusted net profit margins by 20 basis points due to improved profit outlook [1] Group 2 - In the self-owned brand segment, the total GMV for self-owned brand products grew by 16.7% year-on-year, accounting for 8.2% of total GMV, with over 600 new self-owned brand SKUs launched in Q3 [2] - The company reaffirms its long-term goal of achieving a self-owned brand penetration rate of 30% [2] Group 3 - The company leverages artificial intelligence across various business scenarios, enhancing product recommendation accuracy and generating over 100 million yuan in new sales revenue since the launch of its recommendation engine in Q4 2024 [1] - The overseas strategy prioritizes supporting Chinese enterprises in international expansion, providing comprehensive services including procurement, delivery, product certification, and customs clearance in countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Mexico, with management expecting overseas operations to break even by 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Zhenkunhang (NYSE: ZKH) reported a significant reduction in adjusted net loss for Q3 2025, narrowing to approximately 14 million RMB, a 78% decrease from about 66 million RMB in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of 30 to 40 million RMB loss [1] - The company achieved a monthly breakeven point in September and is confident in achieving quarterly profitability in Q4 2025, marking a transition into a "profitability growth phase" [1][7] Business Performance - The average daily order volume increased from approximately 37 million RMB in July to about 52 million RMB in November, representing a growth of over 40% [2] - The number of customers surpassed 70,000, setting a new quarterly record, which lays a solid foundation for future growth [2] - Total expenses decreased by 14.4% year-on-year to approximately 420 million RMB, showcasing effective cost control and operational optimization [2] Product and AI Development - Zhenkunhang expanded its product matrix by adding over 2.3 million SKUs in Q3, bringing the total to over 19 million SKUs, with a goal to increase the share of its proprietary brand business from 8% to 30% [3] - The company launched its self-developed "Xingjialinglong" AI model, which automates 45 process scenarios, leading to a 42% increase in customer service efficiency and a 52% increase in procurement efficiency [4] - The AI-driven "AI Recommendation Brain" has generated over 100 million RMB in incremental sales since its launch, demonstrating the effectiveness of AI in enhancing sales performance [4] Future Outlook - Management plans to focus on strengthening its competitive edge in core industrial products, including spare parts and chemicals, to solidify its leadership position in the "hardcore" industrial goods sector [6] - Strategic partnerships with leading equipment manufacturers and core component suppliers are being established to enhance product offerings and customer service [7] - The company has successfully completed a phase of adjustment, indicating a stable recovery in overall operations and a transition to a new stage of high-quality growth [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, GMV decreased by 2.3% year-over-year to RMB 2.62 billion, while total revenues increased by 2.1% to RMB 2.33 billion, indicating a recovery in top-line growth [17] - Adjusted net loss narrowed significantly by approximately 78% year-over-year to RMB 14 million, with an adjusted net loss margin improving to 0.6% [5][20] - Operating loss decreased by 69.3% to RMB 32.3 million, with the margin improving to negative 1.4% from negative 4.6% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of transacting customers exceeded 70,000, reaching a new quarterly high, and private label GMV grew by 16.7% year-over-year, accounting for 8.2% of total GMV [17][8] - Gross margin for product sales YP model increased by 11.2 basis points to 16.2%, while the marketplace model's take rate rose by 47.5 basis points to 13.1% year-over-year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average weekday order value improved from approximately RMB 37 million in July to RMB 52 million in November, representing an increase of over 40% [4] - The company added over 2.3 million sellable SKUs, bringing the total to more than 19 million, and onboarded over 1,200 new suppliers [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its supply chain capabilities and product offerings, particularly in professional and industrial-grade MRO categories [9][25] - AI technologies are being integrated across various business processes to improve operational efficiency and customer experience [10][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about achieving quarterly profitability in Q4 2025, driven by improved operational efficiency and a balanced customer mix [21] - The company anticipates GMV growth of 15%-20% per year going forward, while balancing profitability with long-term investments in core competencies [33] Other Important Information - The company generated net cash of approximately RMB 105.5 million from operating activities, a significant improvement from the previous year [21] - The launch of the Expert Linglong AI model is expected to enhance the entire MRO supply chain, improving efficiency and productivity [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Views on the competitive landscape of the MRO market in China - Management believes that the IPO of JD Industrial is beneficial for the industry, as it promotes the concept of one-stop purchasing on e-commerce platforms [24] - The company emphasizes its specialization in chemicals and industrial-grade MROs, which sets it apart from competitors [25][26] Question: Reasons for not being profitable and balancing profitability with long-term investments - Management indicated that previous losses were due to significant investments in infrastructure and core competencies, but they are now entering a phase focused on profitability [30] - The company plans to control expenses while continuing to invest in R&D and overseas expansion to ensure sustainable profitability [33] Question: Future plans for overseas expansion - Management is focused on serving Chinese companies going abroad while also developing business in the U.S. and Europe, with a break-even target for overseas operations by 2026 [36]