铁合金日报-20260105

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: January 5, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy) [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [2] - Contact Information: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5624, daily change -48, weekly change -68, trading volume 178,709, daily change -46,606, open interest 218,692, daily change 8,632 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5874, daily change -46, weekly change 28, trading volume 141,265, daily change -5,295, open interest 269,474, daily change 1,707 [3] Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin had daily and weekly changes, with some regions down 30 - 40 yuan/ton [3] - Silicomanganese: SiMn6517 prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin had daily and weekly changes, with some cities down 20 yuan/ton [3] Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -264, daily change 8, weekly change 78; Ningxia - main contract basis -254, daily change 18, weekly change 88; etc [3] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -224, daily change 46, weekly change 32; Ningxia - main contract basis -304, daily change 46, weekly change 22; etc [3] - SF - SM Spread: -250, daily change -2, weekly change -96 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had daily and weekly price changes, with Gabon lump up 0.3 yuan/ton degree [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Pieces: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Ferrosilicon - Supply: Sample enterprise开工率 rebounded slightly, but expected to decline in the future under current profit levels [5] - Demand: After blast furnace maintenance ends in January, there will be a phased resumption of production, driving raw material demand; Hebei Iron and Steel's January tender quantity increased significantly compared to December [5] - Cost: Main production area electricity prices were stable recently [5] - Outlook: Supply - demand has marginal improvement momentum, short - term oscillatory and bullish [5] Silicomanganese - Supply: Some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of the year, supply increased slightly [5] - Demand: Short - term rebar is in a production reduction cycle, blast furnaces are expected to have phased resumption of production in January, supporting raw material demand [5] - Cost: Manganese ore port inventory remained low, port spot prices were firm [5] - Outlook: Driven by cost, short - term oscillatory and bullish [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost push, short - term oscillatory and bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Group 5: Important Information - On January 5, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.8% was quoted at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn41.6% at 42 yuan/ton degree, Gabon Mn45% at 43 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn47% at 44 yuan/ton degree [7] - A steel mill in Jiangxi finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5820 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 700 tons [8] Group 6: Related Graphs - Figures 1 - 15 show various data such as ferrous alloy main contract trends, month - to - month spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [9][11][13][15][17][18][20][21][23][26]