螺纹日报：增仓下跌-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the increase in production are putting downward pressure on prices, but the continuous inventory reduction and relatively low inventory levels provide support. In January, the inventory accumulation cycle begins, and attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory accumulation inflection point in late January. The cost side is divergent (iron ore is strong, while coking coal and coke are weak). The real estate demand continues to decline, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside potential. However, the anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing downside support. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical events, market sentiment is relatively cautious. The daily line on the disk has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, and it is expected to consolidate in a weak and volatile manner [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The rebar futures main contract increased its open interest by 43,067 lots on Monday, with slightly higher trading volume than the previous trading day. The trading volume was 697,016 lots. During the day, it declined with increasing positions, reaching a low of 3097 yuan/ton, a high of 3135 yuan/ton, and closing at 3104 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.74% [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price to a certain extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 31, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons week - on - week to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.84% higher than the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, up 0.87 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 85,000 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, 44,000 tons less than the same period last year. This week's production continued to rise due to the marginal improvement in steel mill profitability, reduced incentive to cut production, and the resumption of some blast furnaces. The supply contraction situation was marginally alleviated, and subsequent pressure emerged [2] - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending December 31, the apparent consumption decreased by 22,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0044 million tons. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent demand had declined for two consecutive weeks. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, and the restocking pace was slow, mainly purchasing on demand. In the medium - to - long - term, demand was under pressure. The new construction area of real estate continued to decline, infrastructure provided some support but with limited increments, and steel consumption in the manufacturing industry was stable but could not change the overall weak situation [2] Inventory - Inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending December 31, the total inventory decreased by 122,200 tons week - on - week to 4.2203 million tons, declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Among them, the social inventory was 2.8266 million tons, down 115,300 tons week - on - week, declining for 12 consecutive weeks and reaching a three - year low. The steel mill inventory was 1.3937 million tons, slightly down 6900 tons, also at a three - year low, providing strong support. The inventory accumulation inflection point was expected to occur 1 - 2 weeks before the Spring Festival. The steel mill inventory changed from an increase to a decrease, and the social inventory continued to decline, indicating a reduction in inventory pressure in the circulation link [3] Macroeconomic - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city - specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." In general, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Cost - The risk of raw material price fluctuations increased. Coke prices had been lowered in four rounds, weakening cost support. Iron ore prices were strong, but inventory levels were high. Scrap steel prices were relatively stable, providing support for electric furnace costs [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low with continued reduction, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation and slower inventory reduction, accelerated resumption of blast furnace production, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, a decline in iron ore prices from high levels, weakening cost support, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]