南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：反复震荡，驱动不显-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs before the Spring Festival, cost - based pricing for soda ash with new capacity on the way, and high inventories in the glass mid - stream and an ongoing capacity expansion cycle for soda ash [1]. - The glass market has a weak spot price due to high mid - stream inventories and the off - season. The soda ash market is affected by new capacity expectations and high inventories, but its upstream inventory reduction is better than expected [2]. - Glass and soda ash markets are in a state of oscillation without clear trends, and observation is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which impacts long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy - related supply disturbances cannot be excluded [1]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacity is pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Its valuation lacks upward potential without a trend of production reduction, and its demand is expected to decline with potential glass cold repairs [1]. - In reality, the high mid - stream glass inventories need to be digested. For soda ash, the capacity expansion cycle continues, and an oversupply situation is expected [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - Glass spot is weak, with cold repair expectations and high mid - stream inventories. Cost and supply expectations affect long - term pricing. The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash markets lack clear trends and are oscillating, so observation is recommended [7]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: Some prices decreased slightly on January 5, 2026. For example, the average price of沙河交割品 dropped by 1 yuan compared to the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices: The 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased on January 5, 2026, with the 09 contract having the largest decline rate of - 0.67% [11]. - Soda ash spot prices: Most regional prices remained stable on January 5, 2026, except for a 20 - yuan decrease in the light soda ash price in the central China region [13]. - Soda ash futures prices: The 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased on January 5, 2026, with the 05 contract having the largest decline rate of - 2.65% [14]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Some glass production line cold repairs are expected to be realized before the Spring Festival, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, which may lead to supply - side policy expectations [14]. - Negative information: New soda ash capacity is expected to increase, and the renewed glass cold repair expectations will affect soda ash demand [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - Glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transaction situations [19]. 3. Disk Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The glass 05 contract has unclear expectations, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. Near - term spot pressure is high, and mid - stream inventories are high. Long - term supply reduction and cost increase are expected, but demand is unclear [20]. - Basis and spread structure: The glass 5 - 9 spread oscillates without a clear direction. The soda ash market maintains a C - structure, and its long - term situation may worsen with new capacity [25][26]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in the red, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits [42]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in central China is around 1105 yuan/ton [43]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [50]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, meeting expectations and accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The November export was close to 19 tons, maintaining high export expectations [50]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 15.1 - 15.2 tons. Some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [56]. - Soda ash supply: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10.5 - 10.7 tons. The first phase (100 tons) of the Alxa Phase II project has started trial production, and the 70 - ton new capacity of Yingcheng Xindu is pending [59]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: Mid - stream glass inventories remain high, and spot pressure exists. As of the end of December, glass deep - processing orders and raw material inventories decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to decline by 7.5%. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [62]. - Soda ash demand: The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 24 tons, showing a slight decline. The daily demand for soda ash is about 4.8 tons. With potential glass cold repairs, soda ash demand is expected to decline. Photovoltaic glass inventories are accumulating, and its cold repair expectations should be monitored. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to decline by 0.2% [73][74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the total glass factory inventory is 56.866 million weight - cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million weight - cases (- 3.00%) and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days are 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. Mid - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [82]. - Soda ash: The soda ash inventory is 1.4083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons. The light soda ash inventory is 732,200 tons, a decrease of 3300 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 676,100 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 390,400 tons (a decrease of 4700 tons). The combined factory and delivery warehouse inventory is 1.7987 million tons, a decrease of 34,900 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [82].