PTA期货：阶段性兑现利润为佳

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Weekly Report (January 5, 2026) [1][2] - Report Subject: PTA Futures - Analyst: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong upward trend, with the TA2605 contract closing at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The recent sharp rise in PX prices and the significant expansion of PXN have basically reflected the post - holiday expectations. In terms of supply, PX factories are more willing to increase production due to good profits, and PTA factories are selling spot PX at high prices, resulting in a more relaxed PX supply than expected. As the PTA processing fee recovers, the uncertainty of PTA plant maintenance in the first quarter increases. The downstream polyester industry experiences seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, strengthening the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Recently, some large polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, so PTA has limited self - driving force and mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve. It is advisable for short - term bulls to realize profits [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - PTA futures: TA2605 closed at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. PX price increases and PXN expansion have reflected post - holiday expectations. PX supply is more relaxed than expected, and PTA has a strong inventory accumulation expectation in Q1. Some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and PTA follows raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, PTA processing fee is expected to improve, and short - term bulls should realize profits [3]. Attention Factors - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil price trends [4] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,110.00 | 5,220.00 | - 110.00 | - 2.11% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 143.11 | 141.84 | 1.27 | 0.90% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 86.83 | 84.36 | 2.47 | 2.93% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 59.55 | 60.70 | - 1.15 | - 1.89% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 363 | 360 | 3.00 | 0.83% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 4,977 | 5,038 | - 61.00 | - 1.21% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis - PX Spot and Futures Market Review: Includes charts of PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX prices in Taiwan, and related price spreads [7][9][13] - PX Supply Analysis: Covers PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [14][16][18] PTA - Related Analysis - PTA Spot and Futures Market Review: Presents a chart of PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [21] - PTA Supply Analysis: Involves PTA monthly output, operating rate, and social inventory [23][28] - PTA Consumption Analysis: Includes PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filaments and staple fibers, operating rates of polyester chips, filaments, and staple fibers, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [29][31][34] - Cost - Profit Analysis: Shows a chart of PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [37][39]