铜铝周报：铜价强势，铝价补涨-20260105

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - Report Date: January 5, 2026 - Research Focus: Copper and aluminum futures market analysis 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: After the holiday, copper prices showed little fluctuation. Post - holiday, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 mark. In December, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were implemented, market liquidity recovered, and capital risk appetite was high. Macro factors drove copper prices up, while the industry followed passively, with the basis and monthly spreads showing weak performance. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) contradicts the strong macro expectations. Short - term futures prices may need to consolidate through fluctuations and wait for the industry to catch up [5]. - Aluminum: With the strong performance of copper prices, aluminum prices are making up for lost ground. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. In December, aluminum prices broke through the 22,000 mark and approached 23,000, mainly benefiting from the sector effect brought by the continuous rise of copper prices and the increasing expectation of aluminum replacing copper in home appliances. Before the holiday, the copper - aluminum ratio declined from a high level, and the short - term make - up increase of aluminum prices was obvious. At the industrial level, the basis and monthly spreads remained weak, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Although the short - term upward momentum of aluminum prices is limited, as long as copper prices remain strong, aluminum prices may continue to make up for lost ground [6]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Macro Factors - During the double - holiday period last week, both domestic and foreign funds had a strong willingness to take profits, causing copper prices to decline from a high level. Additionally, the continuous rise of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - No specific analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than the graphical data presentation, including copper futures price trends, copper Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [13][17][18]. 3.2.2 Copper Mine Shortage - On January 2, 2026, a strike began at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, owned 70% by Capstone Copper and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials. About half of the workers participated in the strike. The mine is expected to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of copper in 2025. During the strike, production will drop to 30% of the normal level, potentially tightening the global copper supply. Copper prices soared 42% in 2025, and this event may put upward pressure on copper prices in early 2026 [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 31, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic copper was 247,100 tons, a weekly increase of 44,900 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 645,500 tons, a weekly increase of 5,500 tons. The continuous rise of short - term copper prices significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - SMM estimated that the total output of the copper rod industry in December would decline by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Similar to copper, no in - depth analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than graphical data, including aluminum price trends, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [33][41][34]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 31, 2025, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.0207 million tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.2107 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Before the holiday, alumina prices rebounded significantly. It is believed that the macro - economic recovery drove its rebound from a low level. Its price elasticity is greater than that of electrolytic aluminum, which may lead to a decline in the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants from a high level [43][44]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 638,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. On December 31, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 515,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. Last week, the overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories showed a divergence. The low - level depletion of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory provided support for aluminum prices [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline with fluctuations. As aluminum prices rose to the 23,000 level, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices, and the operating rate may continue to decline. On January 1, 2026, the aluminum rod inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [51][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: The conclusion is consistent with the core view, emphasizing the impact of macro factors on copper prices, the contradiction between industrial pressure and macro expectations, and the need to focus on the long - short game at the 100,000 mark [56]. - Aluminum: The conclusion is also in line with the core view, highlighting the make - up increase of aluminum prices due to the strong performance of copper prices, the weak industrial basis and monthly spreads, and the need to focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average [56].