贵金属周报：避险情绪推升金价-20260105

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the New Year's Day holiday, long - position funds took profits, causing the overall precious metals to decline from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas gold prices fluctuated little, with New York gold oscillating below $4400. On January 3rd, the US military launched an air strike on Venezuela and captured its president, which will heat up the market's risk - aversion sentiment and lead to a higher opening of gold prices. After the weekend fermentation, beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend on Monday. If the situation escalates or triggers a major - power game, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [5][22] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9][11] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | January 2nd | December 26th | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,341.90 | $4,562.00 | - 4.82% | | COMEX Silver | $72.27 | $79.68 | - 9.30% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | N/A | $1,016.30 | N/A | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | N/A | $18,319.00 | N/A | | US Dollar Index | 98.46 | 98.03 | + 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 6.97 | 7.00 | - 0.49% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.94 | 1.91 | + 0.03 | | S&P 500 | 6,858.47 | 6,929.94 | - 1.03% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $57.33 | $56.93 | + 0.70% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 60.08 | 57.26 | + 4.93% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | N/A | 55.48 | N/A | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,065.13 | 1,071.13 | - 6.00 | | iShare Gold ETF | 493.78 | 492.64 | + 1.14 | [10] 2. Risk - Aversion Sentiment Boosts Gold Prices - Before the New Year's Day holiday, due to strong profit - taking willingness of funds, precious metals collectively declined from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas fluctuations were small. On January 3rd, the US military's air strike on Venezuela and the capture of its president heated up the market's risk - aversion sentiment. If the conflict is strictly confined between the US and Venezuela, the "boot - landing" effect may dominate, leading to a short - term rise and then fall of gold prices. If it triggers regional turmoil or major - power confrontation, the safe - haven demand will continue [12] - Last week, the US stock market also showed a trend of rising and then falling before the holiday, with strong profit - taking willingness of funds. However, from the VIX index, the overall market atmosphere was good [14] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 2nd, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1558.91 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week. As gold prices declined from their highs last week, the holdings of gold ETFs also slightly decreased [16] - Last week, precious metals declined collectively, with silver falling nearly 10% and gold falling nearly 5%. The gold - silver ratio showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is below 60, breaking through the low since 2021, which reflects to a certain extent that the short - term increase of silver is relatively large [19] 4. Conclusion - Repeats the core view that the US military's actions in Venezuela will heat up risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a higher opening of gold prices. Short - term beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend, and if the situation escalates, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [22]