钢材&铁矿石日报：产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 0.74%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weakening. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure. The positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 0.79%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Thanks to the decent demand resilience, the industrial contradictions did not intensify after the output increase. The price continued to fluctuate at a low level. However, there are concerns about the demand. Once the demand weakens, the supply - demand contradictions will accumulate again, and the price will be prone to decline. Pay attention to the demand performance [5]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 0.95%. The trading volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, favorable factors support the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply remains high and the demand improvement is limited. The fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level fluctuating state. Pay attention to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Real estate industry: In 2025, central and state - owned enterprises became the main land acquirers, and the leading effect was prominent. The camp pattern of real - estate enterprises changed. The activity in the land acquisition market rebounded, and the concentration of leading enterprises further increased. The number of enterprises in different sales camps showed different adjustments. For example, the number of enterprises with sales of over 100 billion yuan decreased by 1 to 10, with an average sales of 176.55 billion yuan [7]. - Transportation industry: The Ministry of Transport will implement the upgrading project of the main - line waterway, promote the construction of high - grade waterways of tributaries, improve the port hub capacity, and carry out the renewal and digital transformation of water - transport infrastructure to support the high - quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt [8]. - Steel trade: Vietnam made a positive final anti - dumping sunset review ruling on cold - rolled carbon steel sheets and coils from China, continuing to impose anti - dumping duties of 4.43% - 25.22% for five years, effective from December 28, 2025 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 10, 10, and 6 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 20, 10, and 7 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2,930, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged at 2,080. The coil - rebar price difference decreased by 10 to - 10, and the rebar - scrap price difference decreased by 10 to 1,180 [10]. - Iron ore: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports increased by 3 to 800, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate decreased by 4 to 778. The sea freight from Australia decreased by 0.02 to 8.59, and that from Brazil decreased by 0.24 to 22.66. The SGX swap (current month) decreased by 0.11 to 107.19, and the Platts index (CFR) decreased by 3.00 to 105.50 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,104, with a decline of 0.74%. The trading volume was 697,016, an increase of 45,176, and the open interest was 1,548,351, an increase of 43,067 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,248, with a decline of 0.79%. The trading volume was 391,613, an increase of 27,034, and the open interest was 1,294,526, an increase of 26,969 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 797.0, with an increase of 0.95%. The trading volume was 195,492, a decrease of 50,364, and the open interest was 618,775, an increase of 25,428 [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - Steel inventory: The report provides charts of the weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, as well as the total inventories (steel mills + social inventories) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: The report includes charts of the inventory of 45 ports in China (including inventory and its seasonal changes, and inventory环比 changes), the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [21][22][27]. - Steel mill production: The report presents charts of the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills [31][33][34]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand of rebar have not changed much. The weekly output of rebar increased by 3.83 tons, and the supply continued to rise but remained at a low level in the same period. The demand was weak, and the weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions were at a low level. The demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the policy expectation is positive. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil increased. The weekly output increased by 10.97 tons, and the supply pressure was large. The demand showed some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.73 tons, but there were concerns about the demand. If the demand weakens, the supply - demand contradictions will accumulate again, and the price will be prone to decline. Pay attention to the demand performance [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory was rising at a high level. The terminal consumption of ore began to rise, but the improvement in the profitability of steel mills was limited, and the demand improvement space was restricted. The positive factor was the restocking of steel mills before the Spring Festival. The overall supply remained high. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level fluctuating state. Pay attention to the restocking situation of steel mills [40].