财达期货｜贵金属周报：银价上演过山车-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market of gold and silver is not over yet, and it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026, which is an important support for the bull market [3] - Before the new Fed Chairman takes office in May 2026, the gold and silver market should not have major problems. However, if the interest rate cut is less than expected after the new chairman takes office, there may be significant fluctuations or even a turning point [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance of Precious Metals - In the week before the holiday, the precious metal market experienced a roller - coaster ride. The silver price once rose by more than 10% in a single day, reaching $79 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of more than 150%. The domestic silver price also rose significantly. It had a large intraday amplitude, with a sharp drop in the afternoon after a sharp rise on Monday, a quick rebound the next day, and a significant decline again on the last trading day before New Year's Day [1] - During the New Year's Day holiday, the international market resumed trading on January 2nd, and both gold and silver prices rebounded slightly [1] - Currently, the international silver price is in a high - level shock consolidation state. It has formed an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, with the 10 - day moving average providing support. The gold price is weaker than the silver price but is also supported by the 20 - day moving average, maintaining a slow upward trend [5] 3.2 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that policymakers had significant differences on whether inflation or unemployment posed a greater risk to the US economy. Most officials believed that the labor market risk was still downward, while inflation risk was upward. They also thought that further interest rate cuts might be appropriate in the future if new data supported the expected gradual decline of inflation [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in March is 45.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 48.3% [1] - It is estimated that there will be at most one interest rate cut before Powell leaves office in May, and the market has basically digested this expectation. The key is whether the new Fed Chairman after May will implement a cliff - like interest rate cut as Trump wishes, which remains highly uncertain [2][3] - If the economic situation, employment, and inflation do not change significantly from the current situation, especially if inflation does not rebound significantly, it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026 [3] 3.3 International Geopolitical Events - During the New Year's Day holiday, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US, which is expected to have a short - term impact on oil and gold prices [4] - Ukraine launched a fierce attack on the Kherson region, and Russia carried out large - scale retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian military enterprises and related energy facilities. The Russia - Ukraine situation has fallen into great uncertainty again [4]