委内瑞拉局势冲击有限，长期油价仍锚定宽松基本面

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Venezuelan situation on international oil prices is limited, and long - term oil prices are still anchored to a loose fundamental situation. Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. In the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On December 31, 2025, the SC main contract price was reported at 432.2 yuan per barrel, a slight decline of 0.89% from the previous day; the WTI main contract was at 57.41 US dollars per barrel, down 0.93%; the Brent main contract was at 60.91 US dollars per barrel, down 0.6%. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.93 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 16.22%; the SC - WTI spread remained stable at 4.43 US dollars per barrel; the Brent - WTI spread strengthened to 3.5 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 5.11%; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened to - 3.1 yuan per barrel [1][5] - Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026, strengthening the expectation of supply tightening. Due to the arrest of the Venezuelan president, Venezuelan oil exports were temporarily paralyzed and ports were damaged. However, its current production and export scale have a limited impact on international oil prices. As of the end of 2025, its daily crude oil production was about 1 million barrels, accounting for about 1% of the global total supply, and daily exports were about 700,000 barrels [2] - Demand Side: On January 2, China's "Deep - Sea No.1" gas field increased its production to 4.5 million tons of oil equivalent, indicating stable operation of refinery facilities and stable overall apparent demand. In Europe and the US, although the Christmas oil - using peak season temporarily boosted demand, the overall recovery rate slowed down and was lower than the same period last year, and refinery operations started to decline after the festival [2] - Inventory Side: Venezuelan inventories were full, leading to local production cut pressure. US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories and OECD inventory data were not updated, but global inventories may tighten due to supply disruptions [2] - Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with geopolitical situations being the main driver of price fluctuations. Although the interruption of Venezuelan oil exports has a controllable impact on the global market, in the long run, if the US invests in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, it may increase oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil - Futures Prices: SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices all declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 0.89%, 0.93%, and 0.6% respectively. - Spot Prices: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread weakened, the SC - WTI spread remained stable, and the Brent - WTI spread and SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened. - Other Assets: The US dollar index slightly increased, the S&P 500 declined, and the DAX index remained unchanged. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.46%, Cushing inventories increased by 2.52%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. - Refinery Operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume both increased slightly [5] - Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU declined on December 31, 2025, compared with the previous day, with declines of 1.05% and 1.41% respectively. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and other indicators also showed different degrees of change [6] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply - On January 4, 2026, it was reported that OPEC+ agreed in principle to continue to suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The US government asked major US oil companies to invest in Venezuela to repair its oil infrastructure [7][8] - Demand - Venezuelan state - owned oil company executives stated that the US attack did not damage oil facilities, and production and refining operations were normal [9] - Inventory - Venezuelan state - owned oil company asked some joint - venture enterprises to cut crude oil production due to full inventories. Venezuelan oil exports were paralyzed [10] - Market Information - On January 3, 2026, US President Trump said that the US would restore normal oil supply and ensure the proper care of the Venezuelan people, while maintaining a full - scale embargo on Venezuelan oil [11] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually show the changes in the industrial chain data [12][14][16]