纯苯、苯乙烯日报：海外支撑减弱，芳烃供需分化延续-20260105

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the pure benzene market lies in the mismatch between high import pressure and weak downstream demand. Overseas supply pressure persists, leading to continued accumulation of domestic port inventories, which suppresses the market. Domestic supply growth is limited, and there is a potential supply increase from new capacity in Q1. Demand remains weak [3]. - The styrene market shows a pattern of slow supply recovery, delayed inventory rebuilding, and some demand resilience. Overseas supply pressure has increased, but previous price support is still being released. Domestic supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is in the off - season with mixed performance in downstream sectors [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - Price: On December 31, the styrene main contract rose 0.15% to 6,791 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract fell 0.44% to 5,463 yuan/ton. Brent crude closed at $58.0/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), and WTI crude closed at $61.3/barrel (-$0.6/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,330 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: East China pure benzene port inventory was 30.0 tons (+2.7 tons), and styrene port inventory was 13.9 tons (+0 tons) [2]. - Supply: CFR China and FOB South Korea processing fees rebounded slightly, and the US - South Korea price difference remained high. However, the overseas gasoline crack spread weakened, reducing the blending support. Styrene plant load rebounded from a low level, but non - integrated plants were still in the loss zone with limited profit improvement [2]. - Demand: The overall downstream of pure benzene strengthened, with the operating rates of CPL and phenol recovering. The styrene downstream entered the off - season, with slight fluctuations in the operating rates of PS and ABS, a slight decline in EPS operating rate, continuous compression of hard - rubber production profits, and persistent finished - product inventory pressure [2]. (2) Viewpoints - Pure Benzene: The core contradiction is the mismatch between high import pressure and weak downstream demand. Overseas supply pressure persists, and domestic port inventories continue to accumulate. Domestic supply growth is limited, and new capacity may be put into operation in Q1 [3]. - Styrene: The market shows slow supply recovery, delayed inventory rebuilding, and some demand resilience. Overseas supply pressure has increased, but previous price support is still being released. Domestic supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is in the off - season [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene - Styrene futures rose 0.15% to 6,791 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose 0.18% to 6,760 yuan/ton. Pure benzene futures fell 0.44% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and East China spot prices fell 0.19% to 5,330 yuan/ton. Brent crude fell 0.22% to $58.0/barrel, and WTI crude fell 0.98% to $61.3/barrel [5]. (2) Production and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene - China's styrene production decreased 0.66% to 35.2 tons, and pure benzene production remained unchanged at 43.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu remained at 13.9 tons, and national pure benzene port inventory increased 9.89% to 30.0 tons [6]. (3) Operating Rates - Among pure benzene downstream, the operating rates of caprolactam and phenol increased, while that of aniline decreased. Among styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS decreased, while those of VBS and ABS increased [7]. 3. Industry News - Eight OPEC+ countries agreed in principle to suspend oil production growth in Q1 2026. The US and Israel demanded that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment activities. Other news includes political statements from Venezuela and Ukraine, sanctions by Ukraine, price cuts of gasoline and diesel in South Africa, and drone attacks by Ukraine on Russia [8][10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of pure benzene and styrene, the price difference between styrene and pure benzene, import and domestic costs of pure benzene, port and factory inventories of styrene, port inventories of pure benzene and ABS, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [11][21][30].