——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.29-2026.1.4）：钨精矿价格出现自2025年10月以来首次回调-20260105

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" for steel and non-ferrous metals [5] Core Insights - Tungsten concentrate prices have seen a decline for the first time since October 2025, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][2] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises is tightening, with the BCI index dropping to 47.15 in December 2025, down 10.19% month-on-month [1][19] - The national steel PMI new orders index decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 45.4% in December, reflecting a slowdown in demand [22][43] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises is at 47.15, down 10.19% from the previous month [1] - M1 and M2 growth rate differences show a strong positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, with M1-M2 growth rate difference at -3.1 percentage points in November 2025 [1][19] - The current price of London gold is $4,333 per ounce, down 4.41% from last week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index fell to 45.4%, indicating a decrease in new orders [22][43] - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,100 CNY/ton and glass at 1,153 CNY/ton [77][79] - The national average capacity utilization rate for cement is 30.14%, up 12.4 percentage points from the previous week [61] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for December is at 50.80% [2] - Major commodity prices show mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices down by 0.26% and 0.32%, respectively, while aluminum prices increased by 0.50% [2] - Tungsten concentrate prices have decreased to 454,500 CNY/ton, down 1.3% from the previous week [2][9] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.59%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, up 3.92% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained due to government measures, potentially leading to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]