银河期货尿素日报-20260105

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (January 5, 2026) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Area: Commodities (Urea) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic urea market shows a complex situation. Although the daily output is high and the supply is relatively abundant, affected by factors such as Indian tenders, regional demand, and the progress of off - season storage, the price trend is expected to be strong in the short - term and the supply - demand fundamentals will remain relatively loose in the medium - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures rose strongly, closing at 1768 (+25/+1.43%) [3]. - Spot Market: The ex - factory prices of urea in various regions showed a stable - to - rising trend. For example, in Henan, it was reported at 1640 - 1660 yuan/ton; in Shandong, small - particle ex - factory price was 1660 - 1700 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On January 5, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.86 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 2.52 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate was 82.70%, a 2.52% increase compared to 78.05% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Regional Market Conditions: In Shandong, the ex - factory price was weak and stable, with a cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory price followed the downward trend. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the ex - factory price was strong, and the market atmosphere was positive [5]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The daily output of domestic urea has recovered to around 19.8 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. India has tendered again, but the impact on the domestic market is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The off - season storage progress has reached over 70%, and the future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5]. - Price Forecast: In the short - term, the ex - factory price is expected to be strong in most regions. In the medium - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of urea will remain relatively loose, and the acceptance of price increases by downstream customers is low [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side Trading: Bullish [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold off [6][9]. - Options: Hold off [9]. Related Charts - Multiple charts show historical data on urea production, operating rate, inventory, and related product data from 2022 to 2025, including daily production, coal - based and gas - based production, enterprise inventory, port inventory, etc. [10][14]