宏观与大宗商品周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical tensions have led to increased investor risk aversion, with risk assets showing mixed performance. Global stocks and commodities mostly declined, while A - shares were volatile and differentiated. The BDI index slightly declined, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained strong. Commodities were under pressure and differentiated, with internal style changes. Precious metals fell sharply, while non - ferrous metals were strong, and oil prices continued to be weak. Black - series commodities continued to rebound [6][11]. - The domestic bond market declined across the board, with near - term bonds stronger than long - term ones. The stock index was under pressure and mostly declined, with the growth - style stocks more resilient than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rose against the trend. Most domestic commodity sectors declined, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of - 6.87%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 6 falling [6][16]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 81.4%. The market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, with improved domestic and external demand, price differentiation, and enterprises replenishing inventories [85][88]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Overseas geopolitical tensions increased risk aversion. Risk assets were mixed, with global stocks and commodities mostly falling. A - shares were volatile and differentiated, and the BDI index slightly declined. The US dollar rebounded, the RMB remained strong, and commodities were under pressure and differentiated [6][11]. - The domestic bond market declined, the stock index was under pressure and mostly fell, and most domestic commodity sectors were weak. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of - 6.87%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 6 falling [6][16]. - The funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly. The energy and soft - commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [7][20]. - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index slightly decreased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a significant increase in volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index changed little. The volatility of commodity futures sectors varied, with coal, coking, steel, and ore, agricultural and sideline products, and non - metallic building materials sectors having obvious volatility decreases, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors having notable volatility increases [7][30]. - The Fed's probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 81.4%, and the market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. Large - scale Assets - Overseas geopolitical tensions led to increased risk aversion, with risk assets mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly declined, A - shares were volatile and differentiated, the BDI index slightly declined, the US dollar rebounded, the RMB remained strong, and commodities were under pressure and differentiated [11]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market declined, the stock index was under pressure and mostly fell, and most domestic commodity sectors were weak. The growth - style stocks were more resilient than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rose against the trend [16]. - Most domestic commodity sectors declined, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of - 6.87%. Precious metals declined sharply, black - series commodities rebounded, non - metallic building materials rose 1.74% leading the commodities, soft commodities and grains were almost flat, and other sectors declined, with energy and chemical sectors continuing to be weak, oilseeds and oils significantly falling, non - ferrous metals continuously declining, and agricultural and sideline products sectors having the largest decline [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, the funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly. The energy and soft - commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [20]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined. The top - rising commodity futures were nickel, glass, and soybeans, while the top - falling ones were platinum, palladium, and silver [25]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index slightly decreased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a significant increase in volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index changed little. The volatility of commodity futures sectors varied, with coal, coking, steel, and ore, agricultural and sideline products, and non - metallic building materials sectors having obvious volatility decreases, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors having notable volatility increases [30]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities showed mixed performance. The BDI slightly rose, the CRB was flat, soybeans, corn, and gold fell sharply, copper, silver, and oil rose, precious metals rose and then fell, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded from the bottom [33]. - The asphalt开工率 declined, real - estate sales seasonally increased, freight rates rebounded together, and short - term capital interest rates rose and then fell [54]. - US bond interest rates rebounded, the Sino - US interest rate spread declined, inflation expectations were weakly stable, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB continued to be strong [67]. Macro Logic - The stock index was under pressure and mostly declined, and the valuation and risk premium ERP changed little [36][43]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and inflation expectations rebounded from a low level [45]. - The US bond yield curve was steeper, with short - term yields weaker and long - term yields stronger. The term spread fluctuated narrowly, and the real interest rate and gold price fluctuated slightly [62]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was stable, the Citi Economic Surprise Index declined, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [69]. Relationship between Stocks and Commodities - Last week, the stock market mostly declined, commodities were volatile and differentiated, and the commodity - stock return difference changed little. Domestically - priced commodities became stronger, and internationally - priced commodities became weaker, and the internal - external commodity futures return difference fluctuated upwards [53]. Fed Interest - Rate Expectations - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remains below 20%. The market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. China's PMI Data - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.25%, up 0.7 percentage points, also returning to the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point, indicating an overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities [88]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 5): South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol is on a state visit to China from January 4 to 7. - Tuesday (January 6): Eurozone December PMI data, US December S&P Global PMI final value, French/German December CPI, and the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (until the 9th). - Wednesday (January 7): Eurozone December CPI, US December ADP employment figures, and US November JOLTs job openings. - Thursday (January 8): US October wholesale sales data and US October trade balance. - Friday (January 9): China's December CPI, US December non - farm payroll report, and the opening of the Silicon Valley Auto Show. [91]