PVC周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260105

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PVC will fluctuate. The current supply - side PVC start - up rate has increased, but the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The export situation is not good, social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Although the market sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted, the overall situation is complex, leading to the expected fluctuating operation of PVC [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The supply - side PVC start - up rate has increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, reaching a neutral level in recent years. In winter, the downstream start - up rate of PVC has decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are not good. Last week, export orders decreased slightly. The price in the Indian market is low, and the demand in India is limited. The CFR China price of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan in January remained flat compared with the previous period, while the CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia prices decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory continued to increase last week and is still at a high level, with relatively large inventory pressure [3] - From January to November 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas was still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to rebound but remained at the lowest level in recent years. The real estate market needs more time to improve. A new production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production [3] - The anti - involution sentiment has further increased. In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, which boosted the market sentiment of bulk commodities. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali decreased, and the start - up expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the current output decline is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the calcium carbide price is stable, the price in the Indian market is low, and the demand in India is limited. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. Social inventory continues to increase. After the spot price rises, the market trading is light [3] 3.2 PVC Basis - The current 05 basis is - 215 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [12] 3.3 PVC Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of PVC has increased. After the devices of Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production, the PVC start - up rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, reaching a neutral level in recent years [17] 3.4 Real Estate Data - In terms of demand, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion further declined. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. From January to November, the commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 8.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.30 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%. From January to November, the housing new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; among them, the residential new construction area was 391.89 million square meters, a decrease of 19.9%. From January to November, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. From January to November, the housing completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%; among them, the residential completion area was 281.05 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.1%. The overall real estate market needs more time to improve [23] - As of the week of January 4, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% week - on - week and was at a relatively low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether the real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [23] 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of December 31, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.24%. Social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East China and South China from 21 to 41) [24][25]