聚烯烃周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260105

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is expected to have limited upside potential due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern, with downstream order cycles shortening and some spot prices remaining weak [3] - The spread between L and PP is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity coming online and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season [3] - Plastic and PP are expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic's operating rate has risen to around 87%, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82%, at a slightly below - neutral level [3][15] - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, and PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years [3][21] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, with significant pressure [3][28] - Crude oil prices are weak despite geopolitical concerns, as the key oil facilities in Venezuela are undamaged and its output accounts for less than 1% of global supply [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation recently, including ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE in Huizhou in October, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 700,000 - ton/year PE in November, and BASF's 500,000 - ton/year product in Guangdong recently; PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year PP was put into operation in mid - October [3] - The agricultural film season is ending, orders for products like plastic weaving are decreasing, and terminal construction is slowing down, especially in the north, leading to reduced demand [3] - Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, mainly for刚需, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at lower prices [3] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic's operating rate has increased to around 87% due to the restart of some maintenance devices, at a neutral level; PP's operating rate remains around 82% with little change in maintenance devices, at a slightly below - neutral level [15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 2nd, PE's downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15%, with agricultural film orders decreasing and packaging film orders increasing slightly, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [21] - As of the week of January 2nd, PP's downstream operating rate dropped 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product dropping 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders slightly lower than last year [21] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price is stable, the futures price has risen, and the basis of the 05 contract has dropped to - 172 yuan/ton, at a low level [24] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The Wednesday's early petrochemical inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in recent years [28]