沥青周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to have significant price fluctuations in the near term, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach while keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][21] - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 15.8 tons month - on - month (7.3%) and 27.6 tons year - on - year (12.1%) [3] - As of the week ending January 2nd, most of the downstream industries'开工率 of asphalt remained stable, with the road asphalt开工率 unchanged at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [3][30] - As of the week ending January 2nd, the high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and the refinery shipments were blocked. The national shipment volume decreased by 3.22% week - on - week to 263,100 tons, at a neutral level [3][26] - As of the week ending January 2nd, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% week - on - week, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [35] - The U.S. military attack on Venezuela is expected to reduce the discount of diluted asphalt, severely restricting the flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries, affecting domestic asphalt production and costs [3] - This week, the main refineries in East China will have intermittent shutdowns, and the asphalt开工率 will remain low. The road construction in the north is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the north is continuously being released. The overall demand in the south is average, and the low - price supply from southern refineries has decreased [3] - The asphalt price in Shandong has increased, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3][16] 3.2 Ratio and Basis - The asphalt - to - crude oil ratio has risen to 6.99 [13] - The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract has risen to - 72 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [16] 3.3 Demand - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but remained negative. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.7%, slightly lower than the - 4.3% from January to October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 1.1%, lower than the - 0.1% from January to October 2025 [30]