双焦周报：四轮提降落地，仍有提降预期-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly. The fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, with a cumulative decline of 200 - 220 yuan/ton in four rounds. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Affected by heavy pollution weather, some coking enterprises further limited production, and coal - coke prices were still in a weak bottom - seeking stage. As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity will gradually increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market situation: The domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly this week. The fourth - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, and the cumulative decline in four rounds was 200 - 220 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Some coking enterprises further limited production due to heavy pollution weather, and coal - coke prices were in a weak bottom - seeking stage [2]. - Outlook: As the year - end approaches, winter storage intensity will increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory was 2156.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.13 million tons (0.47%); the total coke inventory was 915.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04 million tons (0.33%) [4]. - Output: The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 227.43 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons (0.38%) [4]. - Profit: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton (- 22.22%) [4]. Market Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke main contracts, the average price summary of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coking coal, the summary price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, the first - grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel's metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal and coke, the daily output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills [6][8][11][14][17][19][23][25][27]. All data sources are from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [7].