有色金属日报-20260105

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has a supply - demand slump, and it's recommended to wait and see or execute an option combination [2]. - The aluminum market is trending strongly, and the alumina market needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize. Cast aluminum alloy shows weak seasonal performance [3]. - The zinc market is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, and it's in a rebound pattern [4]. - The lead market has limited rebound space and is expected to stay within 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [7]. - For the tin market, continue to hold the call option with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a slow de - stocking speed and a rising price center [9]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the polysilicon market is in a high - level shock [10][11]. Summary by Metal Copper - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai copper rose with increased positions, breaking 100,000 yuan. The SMM spot copper price was adjusted to 100,575 yuan, and the social inventory increased by 1.87 million tons to 25.76 million tons. The copper market has a weak supply - demand situation. Consider an option combination of selling a call at 104,000 yuan and buying a put at 98,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose, with increased spot discounts and a 2.4 - million - ton increase in social inventory. The aluminum market has a bullish trend, and it's advisable to go long based on the 40 - day line. The casting aluminum alloy has a weak seasonal performance. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and short - term price decline slows down, while mid - term stabilization awaits large - scale production cuts [3]. Zinc - In January, the TC of zinc concentrate decreased, and domestic smelters continued maintenance. After the holiday, downstream consumption recovered, driving the price up. The spot market is chaotic, and the price is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, with a rebound pressure range of 24,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The supply pressure of lead is small, and post - holiday consumption is recovering. However, the profit of recycled lead is improving, and overseas surplus is affecting the domestic market. The price is expected to stay between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strong, with active trading. Upstream price rebounds, and social inventory of stainless steel decreases. A long - position strategy is recommended [7]. Tin - On the first trading day, Shanghai tin rebounded. Pay attention to the production of low - grade mines and the seasonal risk of Indonesian tin exports. Continue to hold the call option of the 2602 contract with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong, with limited supply from upstream and some demand from downstream. The total inventory decreases, but the de - stocking speed slows down, and the price center rises [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. Supply is expected to decrease by about 2 million tons in January, and demand from organic silicon and polysilicon is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price increase drives the futures up. The price increase is driven by the cost of silver auxiliary materials, but the terminal demand is weak, and the market is in a stockpiling state, with high - level shocks in the short term [11].