能源日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (biased towards bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market) [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium caused by the US-Venezuela conflict is limited and difficult to change the downward trend of the oil price center. The current crude oil market is in a stage of inventory accumulation with oversupply, and the oil price will still be dominated by the supply-demand pattern and maintain a downward trend [3] - Fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil on the cost side, but the Venezuelan crude oil supply disruption may indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly; low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply and is expected to remain weak [4] - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the holiday, the external crude oil futures did not rise due to the escalation of the US-Venezuela conflict, and the domestic SC crude oil futures fell by more than 3%. The geopolitical conflict has limited and unsustainable impact on oil prices, and the current market is in an inventory accumulation stage [3] - In 2025, Venezuela's oil production accounted for only about 0.94%-0.96% of the global total, and its potential supply interruption is not enough to drive oil prices up in the long term [3] - The US, IEA, and OPEC all predict that there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure in the global crude oil market in January 2026. The US may take over Venezuelan oil resources, and if sanctions are relaxed later, Venezuelan production may even increase [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - During the holiday, the US military strike on Venezuela led to a short-term halt in its energy exports including oil and high-sulfur fuel oil. However, due to the relatively limited export volume, it is difficult to change the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market, and fuel oil followed the weakening of crude oil [4] - The interruption of Venezuelan crude oil supply may affect the asphalt production of domestic refineries, and some refineries may increase the procurement of alternative raw materials such as fuel oil, which will indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply due to the recovery of overseas supply and is expected to remain weak [4] Asphalt - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend under the background of the escalation of the Venezuelan situation, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply [5] - Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey oil) is an important raw material source for domestic refineries. Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp decrease in the shipment volume to China, which is expected to significantly impact the domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later [5] - If domestic refineries turn to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian TMX crude oil as substitutes, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude oil. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5]