银河期货农产品日报-20260105

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Date: January 5, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.01 today, 108.70 next working day, up 0.31 [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.93 today, 7.92 next working day, up 0.01 [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 10100 today, 9950 yesterday, up 150 [2] - AP05: 9547 today, 9120 yesterday, up 427 [2] - AP10: 8450 today, 8116 yesterday, up 334 [2] Spreads - AP01 - AP05: -277 change [2] - AP05 - AP10: 93 change [2] - AP10 - AP01: 184 change [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year's apple production decreased, good - fruit rate is poor, storage is difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory peak is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production problem, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 7.4404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed is lower than the same period last year [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 113,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] - Apple prices in the producing areas are stable. The number of cold - storage buyers has increased, and the trading volume has increased. Buyers mainly purchase high - quality and low - price apples, and medium - quality apples with high defect rates from farmers have few transactions. Traders in the northwest producing areas mainly pack their self - stored goods. The market arrivals are stable, the sales are stable, and the prices are stable [7] - The price of late - maturing paper - bag Fuji in Baishui County, Weinan, Shaanxi is stable. The mainstream price of 70 farmer - produced apples is 3.0 - 3.3 yuan per catty, and most transactions are concentrated at 3.2 yuan per catty. The price of trader - sourced apples is about 4.2 yuan per catty. The recent sales are good, and the buyers' enthusiasm has increased [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate in a short - term range [8] - Arbitrage: Long AP05 and short AP10 [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include prices of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - kind fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory and出库量 [11][13][18][20][23]