芳烃市场周报：走势分化，供需结构主导（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aromatics market shows a differentiated trend, with the supply - demand structure playing a dominant role in the PX, pure benzene, and styrene markets [1]. - PX has shown a relatively strong pattern since the fourth quarter, but lacks further upward support. It may maintain a tight pattern until the maintenance season from March to May 2026. - Pure benzene is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory and import pressure. It will likely remain in a low - level volatile and stable state in the short term. - Styrene has improved in terms of supply - demand structure since November. In the short term, it trades on the strength of aromatics prices and export news, and there may be an opportunity for the supply - demand pattern to improve in the second quarter. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - Cost: PX's ex - factory price has continuously increased, and the basis has widened. The main influencing factors of the cost side are geopolitical news and OPEC+ production policies. The international oil price remains weak, and the short - term cost support is average [3]. - Supply: Some PX plants have shut down or are under maintenance. This week, the PX output was 74.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 88.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%. The production enthusiasm of PX plants remains high [3]. - Demand: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of downstream PTA reached 74.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.35%. The supply - demand of PTA is tight, and the balance sheet continues to reduce inventory [3]. - Summary and Outlook: PX has certain support from improved downstream demand since the fourth quarter. Although the current efficiency is good and the long - term outlook is positive, it lacks further upward support. It is expected to maintain a tight pattern until the maintenance season in 2026 [3]. Pure Benzene Market - Spot and Futures: The supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. The far - month price is under pressure, and the futures price has continuously declined. The increase since late December is less than that of other aromatics [5]. - Supply and Demand: In November, the national pure benzene output was 1.908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The import volume in November was 459,600 tons, remaining at a high level. The supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [5]. - Inventory: As of December 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. The inventory has increased significantly [5]. - Profit: Terminal demand is insufficient. Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol remain in a loss state, while the profit of pure benzene itself has recovered. The profits of caprolactam and aniline are acceptable [5]. - Summary and Outlook: Affected by the new production capacity, the domestic output has increased significantly, resulting in oversupply. The market is expected to remain in a low - level volatile and stable state in the short term, and the oversupply situation is expected to continue until the maintenance season [5]. Styrene Market - Spot and Futures Performance: The main styrene contract has rebounded recently, mainly affected by the increase in raw material and ex - factory prices. After the New Year's Day holiday, it回调 following the decline in the cost side. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,915 yuan/ton, higher than before [6]. - Industrial Chain Profit: From December 18 to 24, 2025, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 64.51%. On January 4, the daily profit was 109 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 23.41%. The processing margin has slightly widened recently [6]. - Industrial Chain Operation: From December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026, the total output of styrene plants in China was 352,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [6]. - Downstream: The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 269,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79%. The overall demand of the three major downstream plants has increased [6]. - Inventory: As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.20%. The port is expected to continue to reduce inventory [6]. - Summary and Outlook: Styrene has shown a downward trend overall. Since November, the supply - demand structure has improved. In the short term, it trades on the strength of aromatics prices and export news. There may be an opportunity for the supply - demand pattern to improve in the second quarter [7].