棉花、棉纱日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - Spot Market: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - Spread: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [9]. - Options: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - Options Strategy: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].