黑色金属日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation, with the disk under short - term pressure and mainly in a range - bound pattern. The iron ore market has support in the short - term but lacks the impetus to break through upwards. The coke and coking coal markets face fundamental pressure despite some expectations of stimulus policies. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The steel disk continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased, and inventory continued to fall, but pressure remains. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, and the blast furnace production reduction trend has slowed significantly. Iron water production has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. Downstream real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. Domestic demand is still weak, steel exports remain high, and the December PMI rose to 50.1, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The market sentiment is cautious, demand expectations are still weak, and the disk is under short - term pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment this period decreased month - on - month, slightly stronger than the same period last year, in line with seasonal change rules. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, but they are still relatively high year - on - year. The domestic arrival volume increased this period, and it is expected to remain high in the short - term, with port inventory continuing to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and steel mill profitability has improved recently. Last week, iron water production increased month - on - month. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased continuously but is still at a low level, and there is still some rigid restocking demand in the future. The iron ore disk has short - term support, but the impetus to break through upwards is insufficient. The situation in Venezuela has a very limited impact on the direct supply and demand of iron ore, and future market trends need to be monitored. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing small quantities as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and capital games on the disk have intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks. Spot auction transactions are okay, and the transaction price has increased slightly. Terminal inventory has increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly, and the production - end inventory has decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated weakly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, iron water production decreased seasonally. The weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated downward during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations of a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, iron water production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Silicon iron supply has decreased significantly, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]