贵金属日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading surface [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend and poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but capital sentiment leads to sharp fluctuations. After exchanges at home and abroad adjust margin and trading restrictions, market volatility is still high. It is advisable to participate cautiously and maintain a long - position approach after volatility declines [1] - The supply side of palladium is brittle, and it is greatly dragged down by the decline in demand for automobile exhaust catalysts. Platinum benefits from high investment enthusiasm and the prospect of large - scale application of hydrogen energy. The fundamental expectation of palladium is weaker than that of platinum. The short - term market fluctuates too much, and the platinum - palladium market may enter a shock market after a wave - reduction adjustment [2] - In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times. At the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China, the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies are positive. The re - inflation trading is not fully carried out. Platinum should be allocated long - term on dips, and palladium is expected to follow platinum prices passively [2] Other Summaries Geopolitical Situation - The US launched a "three - hour lightning war" against Venezuela, codenamed "Absolute Determination". The Venezuelan vice - president is acting as the president. Trump threatened the acting president of Venezuela and said he "absolutely needs Greenland". The US lifted restrictions on the Caribbean airspace, and the EU issued a statement without condemning the US. Maduro is expected to "appear in court for the first time" in New York on January 5th [2] Economic Data and Events - The US will release a series of economic data such as non - farm payrolls this week. Last month's data showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate. Trump previously said he would announce the candidate for the Fed chairman in early January, which will greatly affect future interest - rate cut expectations and may bring large fluctuations [1]