农产品日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No. 1: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: Not provided - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by domestic policies, spot prices, and overseas supply expectations. The soybean meal price will follow the bottom - level oscillation of US soybeans. The palm and soybean oil markets face supply and inventory pressures. The rapeseed market is influenced by import uncertainties. The corn market is affected by sales progress and auctions. The live pig market has supply pressure before the Spring Festival and may have a second bottom in the first half of next year. The egg market has a decreasing hen inventory in the first half of next year [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Bean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are strong, with premium auction results and increased purchase prices. South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the supply - side risk is low. The domestic import cost of soybeans has decreased, and the gross profit of crushing on the futures market is good. Short - term focus on domestic policies and the spot market [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% probability of La Niña turning to ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year. The total sales volume of new - season US soybeans is at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, and the US soybean futures price has returned to the previous bottom. In China, soybean crushing volume decreased during the New Year's Day holiday, with an expected 8 million tons in January. The soybean meal price will oscillate at the bottom following US soybeans, waiting for possible South American weather changes [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly in December, with poor exports. There is a risk of continued inventory accumulation. South American soybean supply - side risk is low. Domestic soybean import cost has decreased, and the crushing gross profit is good. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil by - products is relatively high. In the medium - term, pay attention to the soybean import rhythm. In the macro - environment, do not over - short. Adopt an oscillatory approach [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus of the rapeseed market is on the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed crushing and the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed has not been crushed, and the domestic coastal rapeseed inventory has not accumulated. The Canadian visit may promote the resolution of trade disputes. The futures price is at the bottom, but there is a risk of downward oscillation in the first half of January, and the strategy is oscillatory and bearish [6]. 3.5 Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and North ports are strong, and farmers' selling willingness has increased. Traders' inventory is low, and the supply in North China is accelerating. The number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises has increased after the holiday. There will be more auctions after the New Year's Day, which may form pressure. The Dalian corn futures will be oscillatory and bearish in the short - term [7]. 3.6 Live Pigs - After the New Year's Day, the slaughter volume and spot price of live pigs have declined. There is a high price difference between fat and standard pigs, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a risk of price support from second - fattening. The supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year. It is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8]. 3.7 Eggs - The chick replenishment in December decreased by nearly 14% year - on - year. The hen inventory is expected to decline in the first half of next year. It is recommended to go long on the futures contracts of the first half of next year. The 05 contract is supported by the 60 - day moving average before the festival. The potential risk is high valuation. The futures contracts of the second half of next year will be different from those of the first half, and the trading rhythm may be volatile [9].