白糖日报-20260105

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestic sugar is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the near future [8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,269 with a rise of 3 (0.06%), trading volume of 9,154 (a decrease of 7505), and an increase in open interest of 1,495. SR01 closed at 5,278 with a rise of 14 (0.27%), trading volume of 1,423 (a decrease of 1,667), and a decrease in open interest of 1,391. SR05 closed at 5,257 with a rise of 6 (0.11%), trading volume of 136,106 (a decrease of 64,247), and an increase in open interest of 6,906 [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,370 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20), in Kunming 5,200 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10), in Wuhan 5,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5,330 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10), in Rizhao 5,545 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5,790 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20). The basis in Liuzhou was 113, in Kunming - 57, in Wuhan 393, in Nanning 73, and in Rizhao 288 [3]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 21 (a decrease of 8), SR09 - SR05 was 12 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 was - 9 (a decrease of 11) [3]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, the quota - within price was 3,946 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,010 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 360, and the spread with Rizhao was 535. For Thai imports, the quota - within price was 3,994 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,072 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 298, and the spread with Rizhao was 473 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: As of January 5, all 19 sugar mills in Guangdong for the 25/26 crushing season have started production. By the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons (compared to 116,300 tons in the same period last year), with a sugar yield of 8.72% (compared to 9.397% last year). The price of sulfured sugar of Guangdong Jinling in the 25/26 crushing season was 5,310 yuan/ton, and carbonated sugar was 5,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton in the afternoon). On January 5, the sugar futures market fluctuated and closed higher. The spot price of sugar in the main producing areas was basically stable in the afternoon, but the secondary quotes of Nanhua and Yingmao were raised by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall trading volume was average. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 1.1897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase compared to the same period last year; 504 sugar mills had started production, 12 more than the same period last year [4][5][7]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the end of the crushing season. The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 39.904 million tons, an increase of 543,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle, but the final realization of the production increase may affect the market trend. In the short - term, the US sugar price is technically building a bottom, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range over the years. After the previous unexpected decline, the short - covering market has been repaired. The high processing cost of domestic sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5,400 yuan/ton) provides some support for the market. The upward trend of the US sugar price on the external market has an upward driving effect on Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - crushing season and there is still some sales pressure, and the global sugar production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season, the sugar price is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar is expected to show an oscillatory trend [9]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - Options: Sell put options [10]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing data on monthly inventory, monthly output, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][16][18][20][23].