鸡蛋日报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state. In the long - term, the supply pressure of eggs will ease in the first half of 2026, and the spot price is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to the off - season demand. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain. If the first - half price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The demand in the second half of the year is in the peak season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3101, up 31 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3550, up 42; JD09 closed at 4009, down 47. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 01 - 05 spread was - 449, down 11, and the 05 - 09 spread was - 459, up 89. The ratios of egg to corn and egg to bean粕 also had corresponding changes [2]. - Spot Market: The average price in the main production areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged. The prices of most regions remained stable, with some having small fluctuations. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin [2][4]. - Profit Calculation: The profit per chicken was 1.23 yuan, up 1.45 yuan from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather; the price of chicken vaccines remained unchanged at 3 yuan. The prices of feed such as corn, bean粕, and compound feed for laying hens remained unchanged [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - Egg Price and Sales: The mainstream egg prices in most regions remained stable, and the egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with general sales [4]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in November was about 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The estimated inventory of laying hens in production from December 2025 to March 2026 was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - Culled Chicken: In the week of December 18, 2025, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of December 18, 2025, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of the week of December 18, 2025, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight increase from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1 day, a slight decrease from the previous week, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.12 days, a slight increase from the previous week [6]. 3. Trading Logic - Short - term: The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has relieved the previous supply pressure, but the demand is average, so the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state [8]. - Long - term: The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the spot price is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to the off - season demand. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain, and the price trend depends on the supply and demand situation [8]. 4. Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].