热卷日报：增仓下跌-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data shows that the increase in production is greater than the growth in demand. Coupled with the relatively high absolute level of inventory, there is no upward driving force for prices. The destocking of social inventory relies on low-price promotions, and the partial accumulation of steel mill inventory indicates that traders are cautious about winter storage. From the cost side, coking coal is at a low level while iron ore is relatively strong. However, there are still expectations for anti-involution policies, so there is also support at the bottom. It is expected that the short-term trend will be weak and volatile. The daily line has fallen below the 20-day moving average, so beware of further weakening [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 26,969 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 391,613 lots, an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,243 yuan, the high was 3,277 yuan. It decreased in price with increased open interest during the day, closing at 3,248 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 22 yuan, close to par [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons week-on-week to 3.0451 million tons. The output has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the rebound was significant compared to last week. This was mainly due to the improvement in steel mills' profitability, which increased production enthusiasm. Additionally, some steel mills reallocated molten iron from building materials to plates, and steel mills ended their annual maintenance and increased the intensity of resuming production, driving the supply to increase. The subsequent increase needs to be observed [4]. - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons week-on-week to 3.1077 million tons. The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that demand still had resilience, but subsequent demand data still needed to be monitored [4]. - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons week-on-week to 3.7096 million tons (social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 62,600 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, indicating that demand had good resilience in late December. The increase in steel mill inventory was mainly affected by the end of the month and the New Year's Day holiday. The total inventory was at a five-year high, and inventory still had a suppressing effect on prices [4]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro - economic aspect. Deeply rectifying involution - style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. - External macro: The events between the United States and Venezuela may have uncertain impacts [6]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: A significant decrease in supply - side production, the expectation of the start of winter storage demand, the rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace material [6]. - Bearish factors: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [6].