华宝期货有色金属周报-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Supported by macro - sentiment and new geopolitical crises, prices are strong at high levels. However, with the domestic off - season continuing, inventories gradually accumulating, and downstream industries going on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, be vigilant about high - price risks and focus on macro - sentiment [13]. - Zinc: Geopolitical crises trigger hedging demand, and the strength of non - ferrous metals drives up zinc prices. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increases will put pressure on the upside, but it will take time to materialize. Prices are strong within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and internal and external inventory trends [14]. - Tin: Tin prices are in a high - level consolidation [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: It shows an upward trend in fluctuations, with cost support and a tight balance between supply and demand driving the price movements [16][17]. Summary According to Different Catalogs 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: For copper (CU2602), the futures price decreased by 0.49% week - on - week, while the spot price increased by 1.45%. For aluminum (AL2602), the futures price rose by 2.32% week - on - week, and the spot price increased by 2.09%. For zinc (ZN2602), the futures price increased by 0.45% week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 1.86%. For tin (SN2602), the futures price decreased by 4.62% week - on - week, and the spot price dropped by 2.25%. For nickel (NI2602), the futures price increased by 4.81% week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 5.34% [9]. 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast - Aluminum - Logic: Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macro - concerns about key economic data, trade wars, and Fed independence persisted. Geopolitical crises boosted prices. Fundamentally, in December, China's electrolytic aluminum cost increased, but the cost increase was lower than the price increase, expanding profit margins. The downstream processing industry's开工 rate declined, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories have been increasing since mid - December due to multiple factors [13]. - Viewpoint: Prices are strong at high levels but beware of risks [13]. - Follow - up Concerns: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [13]. - Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated strongly. The Shanghai - London ratio recovered, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes supported further interest rate cuts, and copper and precious metals drove up the price of LME zinc. On the demand side, the galvanizing start - up rate decreased, and zinc inventories in galvanizing enterprises declined. The bonded - area inventory remained stable [14]. - Viewpoint: Zinc prices are driven up by non - ferrous metals, with medium - to - long - term supply pressure [14]. - Follow - up Concerns: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [14]. - Tin - Logic: In November 2025, China's tin ore imports showed a complex trend. Indonesia's refined tin exports increased. Myanmar's supply accelerated, and downstream demand weakened, leading to inventory accumulation [15]. - Viewpoint: Tin prices are in high - level consolidation [15]. - Follow - up Concerns: Myanmar's resumption of production and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [15]. - Lithium Carbonate - Logic: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated greatly. On the supply side, raw material prices rose, and production capacity increased steadily. On the demand side, there was a significant structural differentiation. Social inventories increased, and the overall inventory was still tight. The profit pattern was also differentiated [17]. - Viewpoint: It shows an upward trend in fluctuations, with cost support and a tight balance between supply and demand driving the price movements [16][17]. - Follow - up Concerns: Raw material price fluctuations, production capacity release rhythm, terminal demand, market sentiment, funds, and policy changes [17]. 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite - Price: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; domestic low - grade bauxite also remained unchanged week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average import price index decreased by 1.98 week - on - week and 37.44 year - on - year [22]. - Arrival and Departure Volumes: The arrival volume at ports increased by 1.87 week - on - week and 15.79 year - on - year; the departure volume decreased by 56.57 week - on - week and increased by 46.53 year - on - year [27]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased by 5 week - on - week and 2940 year - on - year. The full cost decreased by 18.3 week - on - week and 622.1 year - on - year, and the profit in Shanxi decreased by 5 week - on - week and 2638.3 year - on - year [30]. - Electrolytic Aluminum - Total Cost: The total cost decreased by 68.58 week - on - week and 5256.98 year - on - year [32]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum increased by 20 week - on - week and decreased by 210 year - on - year [32]. - Downstream Processing: The start - up rates of various downstream products, such as aluminum cables, aluminum foil, etc., showed different degrees of change [38][39]. - Inventory: Different types of inventories, including bonded - area, social, and exchange inventories, changed in different directions [44][45]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of different contracts decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [51]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts increased week - on - week and year - on - year [52]. Zinc - Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fee: The domestic zinc concentrate price increased by 812 week - on - week and decreased by 6 year - on - year. The domestic processing fee decreased by 100 week - on - week and 350 year - on - year, and the import processing fee decreased by 3.64 week - on - week [62]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit increased by 196 week - on - week and decreased by 1682 year - on - year. The import loss decreased by 14.44 week - on - week and increased by 677.97 year - on - year. The import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang increased by 1 week - on - week and 4 year - on - year [66]. - Refined Zinc Inventory: Different types of refined zinc inventories, such as social, bonded - area, and exchange inventories, changed in different directions [69]. - Galvanizing: The production decreased, the start - up rate decreased, the raw - material inventory decreased, and the finished - product inventory decreased [73]. - Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread: The basis and spreads of different contracts changed week - on - week and year - on - year [77][78]. Tin - Refined Tin Production and Start - up Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.0012 week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate increased by 0.25 week - on - week [87]. - Tin Ingot Inventory: SHFE tin ingot inventory and social inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [90]. - Tin Concentrate Processing Fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [93]. - Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss level increased by 25281.48 week - on - week and 27442.54 year - on - year [94]. - Spot Average Price: The average prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 8300 week - on - week and increased by 81950 year - on - year [101]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Index: The prices of various lithium carbonate products, including the main contract, SMM index, and different grades, showed different degrees of change week - on - week and year - on - year [104]. - Supply Side - Raw Material Market: The prices of all types of raw materials increased significantly both week - on - week and year - on - year, strengthening cost support [106][107]. - Start - up Rate: The overall start - up rate of lithium carbonate increased, with different changes in different production methods [109][113]. - Production: The total production and production of different production methods of lithium carbonate increased, except for lithium - mica - produced lithium carbonate [115]. - Demand Side - Downstream Cathode Materials: The inventory and production of ternary and iron - lithium materials changed in different ways [122]. - Terminal Market: The sales volume of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles increased, and the production of power cells showed different trends for different types [126]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased, sample inventory de - stocking slowed down, and the overall inventory was still tight [138]. - Cost and Profit: The profit pattern of lithium carbonate was significantly differentiated, with the opening of the delivery arbitrage window and increasing import profit [140][142].