南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告：巴西产区开启籽粒灌浆，阿根廷进入需求关键期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil's soybean is in a critical water - demand period, with 22.6% in the flowering stage, 38.5% in the vegetative growth stage, and 37.3% in the grain - filling stage, and some early - sown soybeans are in the mature harvest stage [1][20]. - Argentina's soybean planting area has increased by 6.5% week - on - week to 82%, with 97% of the sown area having suitable or better water conditions, and 17.3% of the first - season soybeans in the reproductive growth stage. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete [1][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Brazil's Regional Conditions - Mato Grosso: The field growth is good, having overcome the negative impact of uneven rainfall in November. The replanting area is within the historical average range, and the harvest is about to start [1][20]. - Goias: Sowing is nearing completion. Rainfall has become regular, and the phenomena of missing seedlings and uneven growth in the fields have significantly reduced [1][20]. - Mato Grosso do Sul: Continuous rainfall continues to benefit the crops, with most plots in the reproductive growth stage and high - yield potential [1][20]. - Minas Gerais: Sowing has been completed, and the recent decrease in rainfall is conducive to pesticide spraying [1][20]. - Bahia: Alternating sunny and rainy weather is conducive to crop growth and the last - stage sowing operations [1][20]. - Parana: The harvest has started, about 1/3 of the area is in the grain - filling stage, and most crops are developing well [1][21]. - Rio Grande do Sul: Recent rainfall has restored the previously drought - hindered vegetative growth, provided germination conditions for the plots sown in early December, and promoted the smooth continuation of sowing work [1][21]. Argentina's Regional Conditions - Buenos Aires: The soybean growth in the two core production areas and the western part of Buenos Aires is more rapid, and the area is expected to receive rainfall to meet the critical water - demand period of the crops. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete, and the overall emergence is good [41]. International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [59]. - February: U.S. export volume, Chinese import volume, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [59]. - March: Brazilian export volume, South American production, and U.S. sowing area [59]. - April: South American production, U.S. sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - May: U.S. sowing area, Chinese sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - June: U.S. yield level and Brazilian export volume [59]. - July - September: U.S. yield level [59]. - October: U.S. yield level, production, and South American planting area [59]. - November: U.S. production and South American planting area [59]. - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. export volume [59]. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting Period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [67]. - Flowering Period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods (continuous rain), drought [67]. - Growth Period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, drought, and pests [67]. - Harvest Period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50%. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [67].