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Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The urea futures market rebounded last week due to news stimulus, but there is no official confirmation. Fundamentally, there is limited rigid support, and the upside potential of the futures price is restricted. It is expected that the futures price will experience a correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics Since the New Year's Day holiday, the market has been weak, with poor order receipts and mostly low - price purchases. Recently, the futures have continued to rebound, the spot sentiment has improved, the purchasing rhythm has become smoother, and most quotes have risen [1][3][4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Price and Volume: By January 5th, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 29th. The weekly trading volume last week was 13.1874 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,800 tons; the open interest was 6.2529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 331,500 tons [6]. - Basis and Spread: The futures increase was greater than the spot increase last week, and the basis weakened. As of January 5th, the basis of the 05 contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. As of December 22nd, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4 yuan/ton [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: On January 5, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,376, a week - on - week increase of 1,626 [9]. 3.3 Urea Supply - Production: From December 25th to December 31st, the weekly urea production was 1.3591 million tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%. The average daily production was 194,100 tons. It is expected that 3 enterprises will stop production and 5 will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 5th, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57% [11]. - Raw Materials: Near the end of the year, coal mines are expected to reduce production, and coal prices are expected to be strong. The domestic LNG price decreased last week. The synthetic ammonia price increased, while the urea spot price decreased. The methanol spot price also decreased [13][14]. 3.4 Urea Demand - Compound Fertilizer: As of January 2nd, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Affected by environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer operating rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the environmental protection warnings may ease in mid - January, but the factories will gradually enter the holiday season [16]. - Melamine: From December 26th to January 2nd, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 47.65%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate is expected to increase as the previously shut - down plants resume production [16]. - Inventory: As of January 2nd, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 172,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory is expected to rise [18]. 3.5 International Market - Production and Tendering: Iran has cut production, and the price center has moved up. India's NFL urea import tender opened on January 2nd, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons [20]. - Prices: As of January 2nd, most of the international urea prices showed an upward trend, with some exceptions for large - particle Chinese FOB prices [20][22].