乙二醇日报：乙二醇显性库存偏高，需求疲软难提供利好支撑-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the apparent inventory of ethylene glycol is high, and weak demand fails to provide favorable support. Although the inventory decline and cost support may prevent further price drops in the short - term, the lackluster demand restricts price rebounds. Therefore, the ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Futures and Basis: The main contract price of ethylene glycol futures dropped from 3,660 yuan/ton to 3,609 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39%. The East China spot price fell from 3,710 yuan/ton to 3,665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.21%. The basis (spot - futures) widened from 50 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. In terms of oil - based production profits, the profits of various ethylene - based production methods generally improved, while the natural - gas - based production profit decreased by 10.0% [2]. - Position and Trading Volume: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 12,684 lots to 241,540 lots, a growth of 5.54%. The position slightly increased by 518 lots to 297,267 lots, a growth of 0.17%, indicating increased trading activity but limited capital inflow [2]. - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 64.88%, with the oil - based operating rate at 72.78% and the coal - based operating rate at 56.69%. The profit improvement may suggest a decrease in the cost of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, supporting production stability [3]. - Demand Side: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. There was no significant driving force on the demand side [3]. - Inventory Side: The inventory at the East China main port decreased from 874,000 tons to 730,000 tons, a reduction of 144,000 tons, a decline of 16.48%. The Zhangjiagang inventory decreased from 355,000 tons to 324,000 tons, a reduction of 31,000 tons, a decline of 8.73%. The obvious inventory reduction reflects increased port shipments or decreased arrivals, alleviating the supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot: The main contract of MEG futures decreased from 3,660 yuan/ton to 3,609 yuan/ton. The East China market spot price dropped from 3,710 yuan/ton to 3,665 yuan/ton. - Profit: The profits of various ethylene - based production methods improved, with the coal - based profit increasing significantly, and the natural - gas - based profit decreasing. For example, the SD oxidation method profit increased from - 628.15 yuan/ton to - 603.54 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased from - 142.6 yuan/ton to - 80.33 yuan/ton [2][5]. - Operating Rate: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly to 65.1%, the coal - based operating rate increased to 57.2%, and the oil - based operating rate remained at 72.8%. The loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory: The East China main port inventory decreased by 16.48%, and the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 8.73% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation On January 4, due to the decline in international oil prices during the holiday, but with the potential strengthening of crude oil under geopolitical influence, there is some support at the cost end. The arrival of ships is low, and the downstream polyester sales data is average. The East China price is negotiated at around 3,680 yuan/ton. The mainstream market is consolidating, the South China market price is stable, and the Shaanxi market price is lowered [6]. 3.4 Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The decline in futures prices but the widening basis indicate strong support in the spot market. The stable supply - side operation and improved profits may promote production, but the significant inventory decline alleviates concerns about oversupply. The demand side remains stable. Overall, the reduced cost pressure and inventory reduction provide support, but weak demand restricts the upside potential [35].