原油、沥青热点解读：地缘冲突下，为何原油和沥青期货盘面出现背离

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the New Year's Day, geopolitical conflicts caught market attention again. The US escalated sanctions and military operations under the pretext of "drug - busting" and carried out a "decapitation operation" to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3. However, under the same geopolitical disturbance, the futures prices of asphalt and crude oil showed a significant divergence [1]. - The event led to the retracement of geopolitical premium for international crude oil. The reasons are that the market had fully priced in the geopolitical disturbance, Venezuela's oil production and exports accounted for a small proportion in global trade, and the current supply areas were stable with increasing supply and potential demand decline due to refinery maintenance. There is still some uncertainty in the Iranian domestic situation and the Israel - Iran situation [2]. - For asphalt, most of Venezuela's exported crude oil is suitable for asphalt production, and more than 60% is exported to China. The market is worried about future raw material supply shortages, and with low refinery inventory pressure, asphalt cracking has strengthened significantly [3]. - For the future of crude oil, OPEC+ will keep increasing production in Q1, and global refineries will enter the maintenance peak from February to May, suppressing demand. With weak fundamentals, short - term neutral macro - environment, and the end of the Venezuelan situation, the focus returns to the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations. If geopolitical disturbances provide a safety margin, short - selling on rebounds is worth considering in Q1. For asphalt, due to concerns about raw material supply and low refinery inventory, long - positions in asphalt cracking and 03, 06 basis are worth expecting as demand recovers seasonally [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Core Data - Crude Oil - In 2026, the global crude oil supply growth rate is significantly faster than demand, and the supply side is the dominant variable. Non - OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada provide stable increments, and OPEC+ nominal capacity poses potential pressure. The overall supply growth rate is faster than demand recovery, keeping inventory high and pushing the price down [5]. Core Data - Asphalt - The main factors influencing asphalt fluctuations include the tightness of raw materials (affected by sensitive oil premiums, port logistics, and refinery import quotas), capacity issues (although nominal capacity is sufficient, many refineries cannot operate at full capacity), and industrial policies (such as the consumption tax reform pilot in Shandong). It is expected that in 2026, the absolute price of asphalt will follow crude oil, while there will be structural opportunities in cracking, basis, and monthly spreads [8].