Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-05 13:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metal and new materials industry, indicating a strong spring market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metal index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 94.73%, surpassing the CSI 300 by 77.07 percentage points [6]. - The report emphasizes the upward trend in various metal prices, with copper prices increasing by 122.97% year-to-date, and lithium prices also showing significant growth [10]. - The report suggests that the demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to increased investments in power grids and AI data centers, which will likely support higher price levels in the long term [5]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.29% during the week [5]. - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 3.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.39 percentage points [6]. - The report notes that precious metals have seen a year-to-date increase of 79.89%, while aluminum and energy metals have risen by 70.62% and 103.31%, respectively [10]. Price Changes - The report details price changes for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 2.14% week-on-week and 41.69% year-on-year, while aluminum prices rose by 1.18% week-on-week and 17.40% year-on-year [16]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide rising by 15.98% week-on-week [18]. Inventory and Supply - The report indicates that domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.5 thousand tons, reaching 239 thousand tons, while exchange inventories also saw a rise [31]. - The report highlights that the supply of cobalt remains tight due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to an increase in cobalt prices [5]. Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, with Zijin Mining's stock price at 35.40 yuan per share and a projected PE ratio of 29 for 2024 [19]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold at 40.19 yuan per share with a PE ratio of 71, and China Aluminum at 13.02 yuan per share with a PE ratio of 18 [19].