金融产品深度报告20260105：恒生科技ETF，2025年12月复盘及2026年1月展望

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative increase of 1.62% from December 1, 2025, to January 2, 2026, with a total trading volume of approximately 1,129 billion CNY[10] - The index showed a pattern of "oscillating downward, bottoming mid-month, and accelerating rebound at the beginning of 2026" during this period[10] Valuation Analysis - As of January 2, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.80, positioned at the 36.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating a relatively low historical valuation[13] Technical Analysis - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was -0.41 as of January 2, 2026, indicating a low-risk environment and a favorable risk-reward ratio[18] - The index's current price is near the main peak of the chip distribution, suggesting manageable selling pressure if it rebounds to that level[18] Macro Factors - Domestic PMI improved in November, and CPI/core CPI showed signs of recovery, providing support for the tech sector's valuation[23] - U.S. employment data showed weakness, contributing to fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which impacted the risk appetite for Hong Kong tech stocks[23] Policy Support - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stable growth and support for 2026, alleviating concerns about liquidity tightening[27] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled potential interest rate cuts, although future paths remain uncertain, affecting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which are crucial for Hong Kong tech valuations[27] Industry Dynamics - The end-of-year promotions in e-commerce extended the sales cycle, enhancing transaction expectations on the platform side[36] - The AI and semiconductor sectors saw increased attention and funding at the beginning of January, boosting short-term elasticity in the tech sector[36] Key Event Outlook - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll, CPI/PCE, and GDP data could raise interest rate cut expectations, benefiting Hong Kong tech valuations; conversely, strong data may constrain liquidity and valuation elasticity[42] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to trend upward in January 2026, driven by seasonal trading and potential foreign capital inflow, with volatility likely to increase during event windows[42] Related ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a total market value of 48.95 billion CNY and a trading volume of 2.907 billion CNY on January 2, 2026[10]