金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260105

1. Report Information - Report Title: Jinxin Futures PTA Ethylene Glycol Daily [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 2. PTA Analysis 2.1 Main Contract - On January 5, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.87%, and the basis weakened to -50 yuan/ton [2] 2.2 Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China today was 5030 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - Affected by the situation in Venezuela, the cost-side Brent crude oil fell to around $60/barrel [3] - PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 77.41% compared with the previous working day [3] - The weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.65 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.04 days [3] 2.3 Main Force Movements - There was a divergence between long and short main forces [3] 2.4 Trend Expectation - There was an expectation of an increase in the PTA supply side, and the downstream polyester load also decreased from a high level. The supply-demand pattern became looser compared to before [3] - Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival, and the terminal demand might weaken [3] - The market generally believed that the supply and demand of upstream PX was tight. It was expected that the PTA price would fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3] 3. MEG Analysis 3.1 Main Contract - On January 5, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 2.51%, and the basis weakened to -126 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3640 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The cost-side crude oil and coal prices were under pressure [4] - The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 65.6 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons from the previous period [4] 3.3 Main Force Movements - Short main forces increased their positions [4] 3.4 Trend Expectation - Previously, multiple sets of devices were shut down for maintenance, and the arrival of cargo ships was delayed due to windy weather, which alleviated the pressure on the ethylene glycol supply side [4] - There was still seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near term, and the supply pressure in 2026 remained high [4] - It was expected that the ethylene glycol price would continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4]