——从部委工作会议看政策脉络：开年政策如何做？

Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal expansion in 2026 will shift focus from total scale to structural efficiency, emphasizing investment and consumption equally, with a tilt towards residents and livelihood保障[1] - The government is expected to remain the main entity for leveraging in 2026, with monetary policy aligning closely with fiscal efforts to maintain stable interest rates during periods of slower government leverage[2] - The focus of monetary policy will include reducing traditional capacity expansion credit, monitoring bank liability rates, and addressing long-term variables like debt and exchange rate risks[2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Broad fiscal expansion is crucial for stabilizing investment, with a focus on new infrastructure and green projects to halt the decline in investment growth[3] - The 2026 target for new local government special bonds is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, significantly higher than other funding sources, making it a key tool for investment stabilization[3] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a focus on both goods and services, aiming to maximize the utility of limited fiscal resources[3] Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Risks - The government aims to address overcapacity and reduce corporate burdens by clearing debts and setting standards to eliminate outdated production capacity[4] - Trade structure adjustments are necessary to mitigate long-term export risks, with a push towards service exports and optimizing supply chain layouts[6] - Risks include potential underperformance of fiscal and monetary policies, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and a complex external environment[7]