汇率双周报系列之七：人民币与港股，谁是谁的“影子”？-20260105

Group 1: Relationship Between RMB and Hong Kong Stocks - Since 2016, there has been a significant positive correlation between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks, with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.54 between the Hong Kong stock index and the USD/RMB exchange rate[4] - When the RMB appreciates by more than 1.5% in a month, the Hang Seng Index has a 93.5% probability of rising, but since November 13, 2025, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.8%[5] - This divergence is only the third occurrence of such a phenomenon since 2016, indicating a potential shift in the typical relationship between currency and stock performance[6] Group 2: Factors Affecting Stock Performance - Weak performance in key sectors of the Hong Kong stock market has limited the positive impact of RMB appreciation on stock earnings, with the Hang Seng Index's future 12-month EPS continuously declining since Q4 2025[6] - The real estate and energy sectors have particularly underperformed, contributing to the overall weakness in the Hong Kong stock market despite RMB appreciation[6] - The market has been characterized by profit-taking and low trading volumes, which have restricted the immediate positive feedback from favorable factors such as currency appreciation[6] Group 3: Future Outlook - As earnings improve and foreign capital allocation effects recover, the relationship between the Hong Kong stock market and the RMB may revert to a positive correlation[7] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a recovery in earnings and a potential increase in foreign investment, particularly if the Producer Price Index (PPI) shows signs of improvement[7] - The RMB's resilience is anticipated to continue into 2026, supported by nominal GDP recovery and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S.[7]