贵金属周报：贵金属剧烈调整，关注1月非农-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metals such as gold and silver first rose and then fell, with significant adjustments. The sharp decline in precious metal prices was mainly due to the concentrated and rapid profit - taking of long positions under multiple rounds of risk - control measures by exchanges, and the relatively low probability of a Fed rate cut in January, along with the strong performance of the US dollar index and long - term US Treasury yields, which also suppressed precious metal prices. However, geopolitical tensions provided some support [3]. - In the short term, due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions during the New Year's Day holiday, precious metals are expected to gradually shift to high - level range - bound trading. But considering the high level of the Shanghai silver VIX, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver in the short term. This week, attention should be paid to the US January non - farm payrolls and China's central bank gold purchases. In the long term, the long - bull logic of precious metals remains solid, and opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [3]. - The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains stable. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices: London spot gold once exceeded $4,550 per ounce, and then dropped to $4,332.505 per ounce, a weekly decline of 4.41%. The Shanghai gold futures main contract also declined by 3.81% [3]. - Silver prices: London spot silver once exceeded $83.9 per ounce, and then dropped to $72.824 per ounce, a weekly decline of 8.20%. The Shanghai silver futures main contract declined by 6.80% [3]. - Gold - silver ratio: The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 57.25, up 3.20% from the previous period, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold ETF: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 6 tons to 1,065.13 tons, a decline of 0.56% [3]. - Silver ETF: The SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 54 tons to 16,444 tons, an increase of 0.33% [3]. - CFTC non - commercial net long positions: COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 6,722 contracts to 240,700 contracts, an increase of 2.87%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 468 contracts to 35,884 contracts, a decrease of 1.29% [3]. Inventory Data - Gold inventory: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 97.704 tons, an increase of 0.01%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 6.59 tons to 1,132.26 tons, an increase of 0.58% [3]. - Silver inventory: The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 127.79 tons to 692 tons, a decrease of 15.60%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.42 tons to 13,990 tons, an increase of 0.01%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 13.61 tons to 819 tons, a decrease of 1.64% [3]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - US dollar index: It rose to 98.4594, an increase of 0.43% [3]. - US Treasury yields: The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.4733%, down 0.0016 percentage points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.1907%, up 0.063 percentage points [3]. - US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate: It dropped to 6.9699, a decrease of 0.49% [3]. US Economic Data - GDP: The US GDP growth rate was strong in the third quarter [59]. - Employment: The November non - farm payrolls in the US were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies and labor participation rates increased, while wage growth declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [64]. - Inflation: Inflation was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations increased significantly [66][67][69]. Eurozone Economic Data - PMI: The eurozone manufacturing PMI and service PMI both declined [74]. - GDP: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded [75]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank: It increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves were about 2,305.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 0.93 tons [83]. - Global central banks: In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is still expected to be maintained [83].