股指周报：假期外盘表现强势，但地缘政治扰动加剧-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the US military strike on Venezuela, the uncertainty of the international situation has significantly increased, which is expected to cause some disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares. If the conflict escalates, the market risk appetite may be further pressured [3]. - In the long - term, in 2026, the stock index is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025. Macroeconomic policies continue to exert force, and the moderate rebound of inflation may help improve corporate profit expectations. Capital market reform policies are expected to bring incremental funds to A - shares, and the role of Central Huijin as a "quasi - stabilization fund" will also support the market. Investors can wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear and the market risk appetite to recover before choosing to build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The improvement was driven by the increase in working days and the effect of policy - based financial tools. On January 1, 2026, 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds were issued, with specific subsidy plans for various products [3]. - Macro Policy: The new round of "national subsidies" is beneficial to consumption and equipment renewal, which is positive for the market [3]. - Overseas Factors: The US military strike on Venezuela has increased geopolitical risks, which may affect China's heavy oil processing and related downstream industries and increase the risk of economic and trade cooperation in Latin America. It will also cause disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares [3]. - Liquidity: Recently, the market trading volume has increased, and the margin trading balance has also risen. As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 254.729 billion yuan, an increase of 13.57 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: Short - term investment should be cautious, while long - term investment can consider going long after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 fell 0.59% to 4629.9; the Shanghai 50 fell 0.47% to 3031.1; the CSI 500 rose 0.09% to 7465.6; the CSI 1000 fell 0.13% to 7595.3 [7]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 44.23%, and the open interest decreased by 5.63% [13]. - Contract Premium and Discount: As of December 31, all contracts of stock index futures were at a discount, with different discount rates for different contracts [18]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was at a high historical level, while the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at a low historical level [22]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: On the last trading day of 2025, the central bank's open - market operations continued to expand significantly and maintained a net injection. However, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the main repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions generally increased [24]. - Margin Trading and Market Volume: As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 11.8% of the total market turnover, at a high level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume last week increased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators: In 2025, GDP growth showed certain fluctuations, and indicators such as industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumer goods retail also had different trends. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs improved in December [37]. - Real Estate: The real estate market showed different trends in various indicators such as housing prices, sales volume, and investment [39]. - Consumption: The retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size showed different growth rates in different categories [42]. - Corporate Earnings: The earnings indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different performances [51][52]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - Macro Policy: The government has introduced a series of policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic development, consumption, and the real estate market [56]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In November 2025, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the number of new non - farm jobs increased. The PCE and CPI growth rates also changed [67][70]. - Trump's Policies: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade and the global economic situation [76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of December 31, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [84]. - Sector Valuation: Different sectors had different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios, and their historical percentile levels also varied [88].