聚酯周报：市场情绪回落，聚酯偏强运行-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend mainly driven by the supply side [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the upsurge in bulk commodity sentiment, the polyester market is expected to be strong, pushing up prices. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the new polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry, keeping PTA consumption at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high - load polyester industry supports demand [3]. - Demand: New polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry. PTA consumption remains high, and the market's inventory - building willingness increases, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [3]. - Inventory: The port inventory of PTA has decreased by 30,000 tons, and mainstream polyester factories sell spot goods [3]. - Basis: The PTA basis has been continuously strengthening, and PTA profits have expanded significantly [3]. - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $360, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 350 yuan [3]. - Valuation: The PTA price has significantly rebounded, exceeding 5,000 yuan. The profit of the reforming unit has recovered, and overseas PX units have increased their loads due to profit expansion [3]. - Macro Policy: Neutral [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating, expected to be mainly upward - trending driven by the supply side [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices remain weak. Due to the intensification of US sanctions on Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, crude oil prices are under pressure [6][26]. - Gasoline: In the US, gasoline inventories are accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits have slightly weakened. The European gasoline forward premium is strengthening, and the market has started to stock up for the 2026 summer driving season [10][15][26]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - PX Supply: Although the PX supply has increased, the market is expected to be strong. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect [66]. - Aromatics Market: Asian reformed naphtha remains firm due to regional supply - demand structural tightness. The cracking profit of naphtha has further deteriorated. The supply of reformed naphtha is restricted. In the short term, aromatic components are supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand, but in the medium - to - long term, they face challenges from energy transformation and low aromatic profits [45]. - Mixed Xylene Market: The mixed xylene market has strengthened significantly, mainly driven by the strong rebound of PX prices. The PX - mixed xylene spread has expanded to $156, and the mixed xylene - naphtha spread has reached a recent high of $174/ton. In the short term, the mixed xylene price will follow the PX trend, but its upward space is limited by weak gasoline blending profits and the impact of eased geopolitical risks on crude oil [59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: The number of overseas ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans has increased. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China remains at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price is difficult to be effectively supported. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [79]. - Gasoline: Asian gasoline profits remain strong. Attention should be paid to domestic gasoline exports [80]. - Polyester: The polyester industry continues to operate at a high load, but demand is seasonally weakening. The commodity sentiment has weakened, and policy changes may have an impact on the polyester industry [87][99].