液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：1月CP超预期走强，PG走势区间震荡-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CP prices of propane and butane in January strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remained stagnant. The combustion demand was basically maintained but weakened year - on - year. Although the chemical demand maintained high - level operation, the profits were deeply in the red, and it was hard to say that the demand was improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures first declined and then rose, with a fluctuation range of 4,000 - 4,140 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices increased, and international LPG first declined and then rose. The domestic LPG market had both rising and falling prices, with the trading center slightly declining. Affected by both domestic and foreign long and short factors, the PG futures trended in a volatile manner. The domestic import arrivals dropped significantly, and the terminal inventory was at a low level. However, the combustion demand was flat, and the fundamentals were both long and short. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 289 yuan/ton, in South China was 429 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 234 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was designated in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 524,400 tons (a 1.18% increase), including 219,000 tons of civil gas (a 0.41% increase), 187,900 tons of industrial gas (a 0% change), and 79,000 tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrivals last week were 31,000 tons (- 53.77%). In East China, some refineries increased their external releases, and in the Northwest, some enterprises reduced their internal supplies. Additionally, the operation of some refinery units was unstable. The weekly commercial volume increased [4]. 3.3 Demand - In winter, the heating demand was maintained, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. The absolute value of the PN spread narrowed, and the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material weakened. Constrained by the weak downstream olefin demand, the substitution effect was limited. At the same time, the supply in the Chinese propylene market was in serious surplus, the PDH units were operating at a high load, and the unit profit losses intensified, suppressing the propane procurement. Driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders had a strong demand for MTBE. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units were operating at a high start - up rate. Although the profits were increasingly in the red as the raw material prices rose, the rigid demand was relatively resilient [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant LPG inventory was 157,600 tons (- 10.47%), and the port inventory was 233,730 tons (a 1.35% increase). In some domestic regions, affected by snow and rain and sufficient supplies, the shipments of refineries declined to varying degrees, ultimately leading to a slight increase in the storage capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. At the ports, the arrivals of ships decreased significantly this period, and the import resources were insufficient. The terminals mostly consumed their own inventories. In terms of demand, the chemical demand changed little, the port trading volume remained stable, and the demand change was limited. Affected by the decline in supply, the port inventory showed an obvious downward trend [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 289.80 yuan/ton in East China, 475.80 yuan/ton in South China, and 191.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,398 lots, with the lowest deliverable location in Shandong, and the number of lots increased by 30 [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rate of PDH was 76.36%, MTBE was 58.12%, and alkylation was 36.38%. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 226 yuan/ton, the alkylation in Shandong was - 769 yuan/ton, and the MTBE isomerization was - 385 yuan/ton [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.30 (a 4.15% increase), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 119 yuan/ton (an 11.21% increase). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, and the crude oil returned to a bearish trend. The oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively and beyond the seasonality. The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 month - on - month to 50.1, the non - manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 month - on - month to 50.2, and the comprehensive PMI increased by 1.0 month - on - month to 50.7, reversing the slowdown trend in the previous two months. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting stated that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The EU extended its economic sanctions against Russia for another six months. The US economic growth exceeded expectations, and gold, silver, and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and President Maduro and his wife were arrested [4]. 3.9 Investment Views - The short - term PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3.10 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, going long on SC and short on PG, and going long on PP and short on PG [4]. 3.11 Refinery Unit Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries and local refineries in China, including information such as refinery names, locations, processing capacities, maintenance units, maintenance capacities, start times, and end times [13]. 3.12 LPG Factory and PDH Unit Maintenance Data - It includes the maintenance data of LPG factories and PDH units, such as production enterprises, locations, maintenance units, normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [14][15]. 3.13 Price and Spread Charts - There are multiple price and spread charts in the report, including CP propane and butane prices, FEI and MB propane and butane prices, price ratios with WTI and Brent, various spreads, and price trends of LPG in different regions, as well as the relationship between LPG and other related products [16][22][26]