合成橡胶投资周报：节前成交走弱，BD/BR涨幅放缓-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term investment view on butadiene rubber (BR) is bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, trading volume weakened, and the upward trend of BD/BR slowed down. Although the actual fundamentals are still weak, with the good overseas and domestic tire demand and the substitution effect triggered by low-priced synthetic rubber, and the plan of DL Chemical to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC, the market sentiment is strongly supported [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex-factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. The domestic BR supply remained at a high level this period. The factors driving the increase in supply price and market price mainly included the expectation that butadiene destocking in January would compress BR production profit, the news of butadiene export negotiations to South Korea strengthening the cost support, and the expectation of favorable macro policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts in January [3] Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,500 tons (0.09%), with a capacity utilization rate of 70.61%; the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons (0.86%), with a capacity utilization rate of 76.92%. Some butadiene and BR production units were shut down, but overall, the supply of BR remained sufficient [2] Demand - In the semi-steel tire market, trading was dull, prices were weak, and merchants were cautious in stocking. In the all-steel tire market, demand weakened, prices were chaotic, and merchants were mainly focused on destocking [2] Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 33,480 tons, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week. Butadiene enterprise inventory decreased, while port inventory increased slightly. BR inventory decreased due to downstream price pressure [2] Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, Profit - The basis of BR in North China was -520 yuan/ton, in East China was -420 yuan/ton, and in South China was -370 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,085 yuan/ton (-4.00%); the NR - BR spread was 1,105 yuan/ton (-9.43%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.47%. The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation was -294 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 1,571.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of BR was 348 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 3.12% [2] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively, reversing the slowdown trend of the previous two months. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. The US economy grew more than expected, and precious metals and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela [2] Investment and Trading Strategies - For investment, maintain a short-term bullish view. For trading, keep a long position appropriately and beware of the risk of capital profit-taking and price correction. Consider the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, unit maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2] Device Maintenance and Operation - Multiple butadiene and BR production units have maintenance plans in 2025 - 2026, which will affect future supply [9][10] Correlation Analysis of Related Varieties - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber-related varieties over 1 and 3 months, showing the relationships between different rubber varieties and other commodities [8]