格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to $4341.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.35% to $72.27 per ounce. On the last trading day before the New Year's Day, Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.85% at 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.27% at 17,074 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of January 2, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 5.43 tons from the previous day to 1065.13 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 16,444.14 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 17.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 44.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.0% [1] - On December 30, CME announced the second increase in precious metal margins within a week, which took effect after the close of trading on December 31 [1] - On December 31, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 decreased by 16,000 to 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000. The number of continuing jobless claims last week dropped to 1.87 million [1] - Since January 1, 2026, China's silver exports have continued to implement the "one - order - one - review" license system. Only enterprises with an annual output of over 80 tons (over 40 tons for western enterprises) and continuous export performance for 3 years can apply for export qualifications. The policy was announced by the Ministry of Commerce in October 2025 [1] - Starting from Thursday, January 8, the annual reweighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [1][2] Market Logic - The minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had significant differences. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January remains below 20% [2] - CME increased the performance margins of gold and silver futures again on December 31, reflecting the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility of the precious metals market [2] - On January 2, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.46. COMEX gold and silver both rose and then fell, with gold closing basically flat and silver rising more than 2% [2] - On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela, and geopolitical risks may drive up precious metal prices in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks in the face of intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]