南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：东南亚降雨有所分化，警惕后续马来半岛干旱情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the beginning of 2026, the intensity of the La Niña phenomenon remained weak, with no significant deviation in overall rainfall in Southeast Asia, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago decreased, with rainfall concentrated in East Malaysia and most parts of Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula had poor soil moisture, and drought might spread further after February. Most areas in Indonesia had abundant rainfall, significantly alleviating soil moisture. The rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak in Malaysia was acceptable, with good soil moisture across the country, but the rest of the regions still faced a risk of soil dryness. Attention should be paid to the drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and western Kalimantan in Indonesia [1] - There was a lack of short - term disruptive weather events. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation did not improve, it might affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产区降水预报 - Recent rainfall in the production areas has shown differentiation, with less rainfall in Malaysia [3] 3.2产区土壤湿度 - The Malay Peninsula has insufficient rainfall and poor soil moisture [9] 3.3 Indonesia Palm Oil Production Areas 3.3.1占碑（Jambi） - Rainfall at the beginning of the year increased soil moisture [21] 3.3.2西卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Barat） - Abundant rainfall has led to moist soil [28] 3.3.3中卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Tengah） - The soil moisture level is higher than the same period last year [34] 3.3.4东卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Timur） - Abundant precipitation has resulted in moist soil [42] 3.3.5廖内（Riau） - Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [49] 3.3.6南苏门答腊（Sumatera Selatan） - Rising rainfall is expected to bring soil moisture above the 20 - year average [56] 3.3.7北苏门答腊（Sumatera Utara） - Rainfall returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [62] 3.4 Malaysia Palm Oil Production Areas 3.4.1柔佛（Johor） - Limited rainfall at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to whether soil moisture decreases [69] 3.4.2彭亨（Pahang） - Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [75] 3.4.3霹雳（Perak） - Rainfall decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture declined [82] 3.4.4沙巴（Sabah） - Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [88] 3.4.5沙捞越（Sarawak） - Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [93]