2026年债券市场展望：度尽劫波，守候周期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core background for the bond market in 2026 remains the continuation of the "liquidation phase" of the debt cycle. The bond yield central - downward space is limited, and the risk of a significant upward movement is also controllable [3]. - Inflation is likely to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026. The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to disappear, but it is unlikely to drive interest rates up [4]. - Fiscal policy maintains a more proactive stance, with a high supply of government bonds in 2026. The supply shock of government bonds remains the main risk factor in the "low - interest - rate" phase [5]. - Monetary policy continues its moderately loose tone, shifting its focus from quantity to price. There is still room for a small - scale reduction in policy rates [6]. - In 2026, the bond market's capital structure will be dominated by allocation - type accounts. The yield curve is likely to remain steep, and the riding strategy may be the best choice [7]. - For the credit strategy, avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums and apply the riding strategy to safe assets. Focus on the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds, infrastructure chains, and cyclical industrial bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt Cycle: "Liquidation Phase" Still in Progress - Leverage Ratio Clearing and Transfer in 2026: The macro - leverage ratio is in a state of "structural differentiation and overall stability". The de - leveraging process of the household sector is deepening, the enterprise sector's leverage ratio fluctuates at a high level, and the government sector's leverage ratio is expected to rise [23][25][26]. - Relief of Liability Pressure in Three Sectors: The liability cost of the household sector has decreased, the enterprise sector's interest - payment pressure has eased but the overall debt pressure remains large, and the government sector's interest - payment pressure is under control [31][35][38]. - Policy Combination and Asset Prices in the "Liquidation Phase": China's debt cycle is still in the "liquidation phase". Fiscal and monetary policies need to maintain a "double - loose" combination. Asset prices should reflect new kinetic energy and improved expectations while considering the background of the debt cycle [43][44][45]. 3.2 Price Trends: Inflation May Enter a Mild Recovery Phase - Food Prices: The pig cycle may reach an inflection point in mid - 2026. Food prices are expected to show a trend of "stable first, then rising, with converging fluctuations", and the negative contribution of food prices to CPI is expected to weaken [52]. - Energy Prices: In 2026, energy prices are likely to be in a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and fluctuating weakly", with limited direct support for inflation [55]. - Core Inflation: Policy may drive the central trend to be low in the first half and high in the second half of the year, with a mild recovery throughout the year. The core CPI central may be between 0.8% - 1.2% [59]. - Industrial Product Prices: With the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the decline of PPI is expected to narrow. The PPI is expected to have an annual central around - 1.95%, and may turn positive periodically [63]. - Inflation Outlook: The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to be zero. CPI is expected to rise moderately, and PPI's decline is expected to narrow to - 2.0% [66]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy: More Proactive Stance with Maintained Debt - Issuing Scale - Policy Tone: Fiscal policy remains proactive in 2026. The general deficit rate is expected to remain around 4%, and the general deficit scale is about 14.55 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2025 [74]. - Treasury Bonds: The maturity pressure in 2026 is reduced, and the net issuance is expected to increase steadily. The annual issuance is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan [77]. - Local Government Bonds: The issuance scale in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, and attention should be paid to the progress of debt - resolution work [85]. 3.4 Monetary Policy: Continued Loose Tone with Focus Shifted to Price Regulation - Policy Tone: In 2026, the pattern of stable and loose liquidity is likely to continue. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and the marketization of the interest - rate corridor, policy - rate system, and liability - side price mechanism will further improve [97][98]. - Price - based Tools: There is still room for a 20BP reduction in policy rates in 2026, which may guide a new round of adjustments in the interest - rate system [101][102]. - Quantity - based Tools: The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has significantly decreased. The regular operations of repurchase and MLF are expected to continue, and the scale of central bank bond - buying operations may decline [105][110][111]. - Credit and Social Financing: The de - leveraging cycles of households and enterprises continue, and credit growth faces continuous pressure. Government bond financing and enterprise bond financing expand to offset the weakening of general loan demand [117][120][123]. - Deposit Situation: Personal savings continue to grow at a high rate, and non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics. Unit deposits show differentiated fluctuations [129]. - Narrow - sense Liquidity: Liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable" characteristics of a downward price central and further converging volatility [140]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Allocation - type Accounts Dominate, Trading - type Accounts Under Pressure - Banks: In 2025, banks' bond investment thinking has changed systematically. In 2026, the main line of banks' bond investment with an allocation mindset will continue [155]. - Insurance: Insurance has a rigid demand for asset - liability duration matching. The allocation of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds has decreased, and the allocation of high - grade credit bonds and policy - based financial bonds has increased [175][180][186]. - Wealth Management: The scale of wealth management products is expected to grow in 2026. Asset allocation will focus on "net - value stability", with a preference for short - duration, high - liquidity assets [205][217]. - Bond Funds: The pattern of public - offering bond funds is about to change significantly. The trends of amortized - cost and ETF products will continue [218][230][231]. 3.6 Interest Rate Strategy: The Limit of Steepness and the Boundary of Riding - Curve Shape: In 2026, the yield curve is likely to remain steep, with the short - end likely to fall and the long - end difficult to decline [237][238]. - Four Constraints: Four factors limit the significant upward movement of long - end yields, including the decline of ROIC, the downward trend of long - term loan rates, the neutral stock - bond ratio, and the decline of banks' and insurance companies' liability costs [239][242][244]. - Interest Rate Strategy: The riding strategy may be the best choice in 2026, with a focus on the 5 - year Treasury bond [253][254][258]. 3.7 Credit Strategy: Supply Pattern Changes Significantly, Risk Premium Re - evaluated - Credit Bond Supply: The issuance of urban investment bonds continues to decline, while the issuance of industrial bonds and quasi - urban investment bonds increases rapidly. Science and technology innovation bonds have become the main incremental source of credit bond supply [263][276][281]. - Capital Bond Supply: The issuance of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continues to decline, and there is still a small gap in TLAC for some banks [290][296]. - Credit Strategy: Avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums in some credit bond sectors. The riding strategy is applicable to short - duration credit bonds, and attention should be paid to the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds and infrastructure - related industrial bonds [303][316][320].