南华期货甲醇产业周报：震荡上行-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Oscillating Upward" [5] Core Viewpoints - After a period of weak fundamentals, methanol prices have rapidly increased. The main trigger was Trump's statement about potentially restarting sanctions on Iran, which reignited market concerns about Iranian methanol plants. The most significant change was the shift in the inventory accumulation expectation. Methanol is likely to enter an oscillating upward phase [2] - The near - term trading logic is driven by the enhanced willingness to hold inventory due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants. The long - term trading expectation focuses on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the methanol 2601 contract cannot be resolved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9][10] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Overseas market turmoil during the holiday, including conflicts between the US and Venezuela and unrest in Iran, may provide short - term support for crude oil prices and increase the risk premium. The main contradiction in the methanol market lies in the shift of inventory accumulation expectations and concerns about MTO profits [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Base - spread Strategy: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market first rose and then fell, the 01 base - spread remained stable [12] - Calendar - spread Strategy: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread moved in a positive spread direction [13] - Trend Judgment: Methanol is expected to oscillate within a short - term range. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200 in the short term. The strategy recommendation is to reduce the position of short put options on methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [14] 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The document provides various charts and data on inland methanol inventory, including seasonal inventory in the northwest region, inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, and the amount of pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][22][24] 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The document presents multiple charts and data on port inventory, such as weekly port inventory seasonality in China, inventory in different provinces and warehouses, and the shipping volume in Taicang [32][41][43] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Forecast: The predicted price range for methanol in the coming month is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [58] - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including using futures contracts, put options, and call options [58] - Positive News: The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the product will be available after the completion of post - holiday device approval procedures [59] - Negative News: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [60] 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - The fundamental support is average. Although producers have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they intend to maintain low inventory and sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling, leading to a decline in the market in the sales areas [62] Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - In the inland market, with the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will decrease, and the supply - demand pattern in the production areas is expected to weaken. In the sales areas, the demand is expected to increase. The price in the southern sales areas is strongly supported and is expected to remain higher than that in the northern production areas [63] - This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread oscillated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [65] Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document provides price trends of coal at the Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, as well as the market prices of methanol in Lunan and Taicang. It also shows data on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [68][71][74] 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document presents the production costs of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions, as well as the seasonal profits of methanol production and related downstream products [80][82][85] 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Start - up Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document shows the weekly start - up rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas, coke oven gas), and downstream MTO units. It also provides data on the weekly production of methanol from different sources [87][91][96] 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The document provides seasonal data on methanol imports from Malaysia, Venezuela, and Iran, as well as information on price differences and import profits [122][123][124] 4.5 Overseas Start - up Tracking - The document shows the seasonal capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol plants, overseas weekly production, and the start - up rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants [126][127] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The document provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for the methanol market from January 2025 to May 2026, including data on imports, production, demand, inventory, and inventory changes [130]