平安固收：2025年12月托管月报：跨年后债券供给上升，市场承接力面临考验-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the new bond issuance scale decreased year - on - year, mainly dragged down by inter - bank certificates of deposit. The new custody volume of interest - rate bonds decreased slightly, while that of corporate credit bonds increased, mainly supported by industrial bonds [3][4]. - In November 2025, banks significantly increased their bond allocations, while the demand from other investors was weak. After considering the central bank's outright reverse repurchase, commercial banks' bond investments increased year - on - year, and the proportion of banks' increased government bond holdings to the net supply of government bonds was at a relatively high level [3][17]. - In December 2025, the government bond supply decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to increase significantly year - on - year in January 2026. The bond supply after the New Year will rise, and the market's carrying capacity will face a test [3][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond New Custody Volume in November 2025 - The bond custody balance in November 2025 was 193.57 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 13.37%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from the previous month. The new custody scale in November was 143.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 82.21 billion yuan [5]. - The new custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit and local government bonds decreased by 68.67 billion yuan and 15.19 billion yuan year - on - year respectively. The decline in the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit was the main reason for the overall decline in bond supply [8]. - The new custody volume of interest - rate bonds decreased slightly year - on - year. Among them, the new custody volumes of treasury bonds and local government bonds were lower than the previous year, while that of policy - financial bonds was higher [11]. - The new custody volume of corporate credit bonds increased by 3.74 billion yuan year - on - year, entirely supported by industrial bonds. The net financing of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds changed by - 7.87 billion and 16.61 billion yuan year - on - year respectively [16]. 3.2 Bond Allocation by Different Institutions in November 2025 - Banks significantly increased their bond allocations, while other investors' demand was weak. After considering the central bank's outright reverse repurchase, commercial banks increased their bond holdings by 91.7 billion yuan year - on - year, while asset management accounts (i.e., non - legal entity products) increased their bond holdings less by 118.62 billion yuan year - on - year, and insurance companies basically remained the same [19]. - Banks' strong bond - allocation efforts may be a passive choice due to the weak demand from non - banks. Banks mainly increased their allocation to various interest - rate bonds. The ratio of banks' increased government bond holdings to the net supply of government bonds in November was 90.9%, higher than the previous month and the average of the past 12 months [22][25]. - Insurance companies' bond - allocation efforts weakened marginally, mainly reducing their allocation to local government bonds and corporate credit bonds. After excluding supply disturbances, the bond - allocation efforts of insurance companies also weakened [29]. - The bond - allocation efforts of asset management accounts weakened, which may be affected by the liability side of wealth management products and the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The new scale of wealth management products and the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit both decreased significantly year - on - year, leading to less bond - buying by asset management accounts [30]. - Foreign investors and securities brokers mainly reduced their bond holdings. Foreign investors sold 1.36 billion yuan more bonds year - on - year, mainly inter - bank certificates of deposit. Securities brokers sold 27.38 billion yuan more bonds year - on - year, mainly treasury bonds [39]. 3.3 Outlook for Bond Supply and Institutional Behavior - In December 2025, the government bond supply decreased by nearly 1 trillion yuan year - on - year. In January 2026, the government bond supply may increase significantly year - on - year, with the issuance of new special bonds and special refinancing bonds likely to rise [44]. - In December 2025, banks may have a relatively large bond - allocation volume. After the New Year, the supply - demand contradiction of bonds will further test banks. The supply - demand contradiction of long - term bonds remains significant, and attention should be paid to banks' actions [46]. - The value of bond allocation for insurance companies is prominent, and their demand may be supported. The spread between the yield of 30 - year local government bonds and the insurance预定利率 is more than 50BP, and insurance companies are expected to increase their bond - buying as the government bond supply recovers in January 2026 [50]. - The bond - allocation volume of asset management accounts in December 2025 may decrease year - on - year, and there is great uncertainty after the New Year. The decrease in December may be due to bond market adjustments and the significant decrease in the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The pace of deposits moving to wealth management products is uncertain, and asset management accounts may also reduce their positions [54].