瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For corn: The U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions and a downward - adjusted 2025/26 carry - over stock forecast support the price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, with growers reluctant to sell and most grain in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have some inventory, while deep - processing enterprises' inventory is low year - on - year. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the downstream product prices are weak, so the corn futures price is currently volatile and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For corn starch: With the increase in the new - season corn supply, the industry operation is good but there is still supply - side pressure. As of December 31, the national corn starch enterprise inventory increased. However, due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers repurchase corn starch, increasing its demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting is advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2224 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. - Corn futures trading volume (active contract) is 1001343 lots, down 7918 lots; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract) is 196808 lots, up 1319 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price is 437 cents/bushel, down 4 cents; CBOT corn total trading volume (weekly) is 1516552 contracts, down 6106 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2356.47 yuan/ton, up 0.39 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream - The predicted annual corn output in the U.S. is 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2]. Industry - Corn inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons, up 15.6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.3 tons, up 2.1 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 tons, up 20.9 tons; the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.4%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.49%, up 0.2% [2]. Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that as of December 30, 84.2% of the expected 2025/26 corn planting area in Argentina was sown, with 83.1% of the sown corn rated as good or excellent [2].